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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Breakfast Business with Enterprise Ireland on Newstalk.
Chapter 2: What are the main business stories discussed in today's episode?
But first, let's have a look at the main business stories in the newspapers and websites, which we shall do in the superlative company of Kate English, the chief economist with Deloitte. Good morning, Kate.
Good morning, Joe.
Are you in Cork?
I am in Cork this morning. Yes, well remembered.
Are you down for the jazz festival?
You know what? I would love to say I'm staying here for the whole weekend, but I am unfortunately not. I'll get a little bit of jazz in today and then I am home to Tipperary for the weekend.
Indeed. Lovely. I hope we get decent weather in this long bank holiday weekend. I'm heading to Cork myself this evening. Wish me luck on the M50 this afternoon. Should be great fun. Anyway, let's talk about something that was announced overnight. And it is, of course, the Donald. He's had something to say about trade talks with Canada.
Yeah, so breaking news this morning, I suppose. What have we seen with trade tariffs so far this year? We know that there's a lot of movements in it and we've often had mornings where we've woken up to new news and changes in the tariff environment.
And although there's a feeling that the global trade environment is a little bit more settled now than what it was certainly back in April or June of this year, it's a bit of a reminder. that it's not the end of trade negotiations or trade tariffs. So the news announced that potential pause or cancellation in trade negotiations between the US and Canada. This is breaking news.
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Chapter 3: What recent developments have occurred in US-Canada trade negotiations?
And I suppose why the focus on India and China? Well, India and China currently are the two largest buyers of Russian crude oil. China are estimated to account for about 38 percent of exports there. Sorry, about 47%, with India being a little bit lower of that at 38%. So with this, all eyes now are on how sanctions will affect supply and will affect the price of oil across the world.
It seems to be a little bit of movement that India will pull back those purchases of Russian crude oil, while we're yet waiting to see, I suppose, what move will come from China. But as I said, all eyes now sit on what do that do for prices. We've seen quite a lot of movement in oil prices in the last day alone. So yesterday, with the end of trading closing down, about $61.59 a barrel.
But for context, that's a substantial rise on a daily basis. The day before it had closed kind of just under the $58 or $59 barrel a mark. So that's one of the largest daily increases we've had since COVID. at the start of this year, if not earlier than that. We're seeing about an 8% increase overall this week. So where does it move today?
Do we see a little bit of a settling in those oil markets or do they continue to rise further? And I suppose why we're looking at this or why is it important for listeners? Remember, we've come off the back of an environment where inflation has come from quite a large peak. We're over 9% in Ireland back in October 2022, post the invasion of Ukraine.
And we've seen inflation continue to trickle back since that. The reason, a lot of the reason why inflation is pipped to be at about 2% in Europe this year is because of the pullback in energy prices and within that oil prices. So, for example, the European Commission are expecting a decrease of 6% in oil prices this year. So does this change that outlook?
And if it does, what does it do to our inflation figures? We don't know yet, but that's why it's really important we watch to see where those supply levels go and what impact it has on prices over the coming months.
Indeed it is. It will be very interesting, especially if the Qataris are going to open up the taps to let oil flow that little bit more. Let's move to France now. It's going to try to tax its citizens no matter where they live.
Yeah, so when we look at France, remember as a little bit of a context or a scene setter here, France is dealing with quite high government debt levels. We know that it's not alone in it. It's one of seven of the G8 countries that have a GDP ratio higher, government debt to GDP ratio higher than 100% at the moment. And they're significantly above that.
And oftentimes what we see with this, when governments are trying to tackle debt, government debt and reduce it. Tax is a policy lever for this. And this week we saw a vote on October 20th that allowed for an amendment in existing tax policies that were there. And I'd caveat from the outset of this, I'm not a tax expert. I don't know what the indeed output of this would be on the French economy.
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