China LPR Decision: Market Winners and Losers

China Leaves LPR Unchanged Despite Fed Cut (1-year 3.0%, 5-year 3.5%)Winners Industrial & Commercial Bank of China ($IDCBY): No fresh LPR cut means less pressure on net interest margins and slower loan repricing drag; narrower U.S.-China yield gap also supports funding stability and the yuan. China Construction Bank ($CICHY): Stable benchmark lending rates help preserve spread income and reduce the risk of further NIM compression in a still-cautious credit environment. Bank of China ($BACHY): Unchanged mortgage and corporate loan benchmarks limit downside to asset yields; a steadier yuan lowers FX-related volatility across the balance sheet. China Eastern Airlines ($CHNEY): Narrower rate differential post-Fed cut tends to support the yuan, easing USD-denominated fuel and lease costs while stable domestic rates keep debt service predictable. China Southern Airlines ($CHKIF): Similar currency and liability benefits as peers; steadier financing costs and potential yuan firmness improve cost visibility for international operations.Losers China Vanke ($CHVKY): No mortgage-rate relief from the 5-year LPR keeps homebuyer affordability tight and sales recovery muted, extending liquidity stress. Longfor Group ($LGFRY): Absence of incremental rate support dampens contracted sales and refinancing prospects, sustaining pressure on cash flows. China Overseas Land & Investment ($CAOVY): With LPR steady, mortgage demand and selling prices see little policy boost, weighing on project sell-through and margins. NIO ($NIO): Auto loans remain benchmarked off an unchanged LPR, offering no fresh tailwind to demand; big-ticket purchases stay sensitive to consumer confidence. XPeng ($XPEV): Similar credit sensitivity as peers; without cheaper financing, volume acceleration is harder, and overall risk appetite toward China growth equities stays fragile.

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