Restaurant Stock Performance Amid Inflation

Darden Restaurants ($DRI) misses Q1 EPS by $0.03 as beef inflation and higher marketing spend squeeze margins despite solid same-restaurant salesWinnersUber Technologies ($UBER) — Olive Garden’s Uber Direct partnership is boosting first-party delivery; if Darden scales this across brands, Uber’s order volume and enterprise delivery revenue benefit.Domino’s Pizza ($DPZ) — Consumers shifting toward at-home, value-focused meals favor Domino’s carryout and bundle offers versus pricier casual dining.Wingstop ($WING) — Beef inflation pressures steak-centric competitors, making chicken-led concepts relatively more attractive on price; Wingstop’s asset-light model can leverage that traffic.McDonald’s ($MCD) — Aggressive value platforms capture trade-down from casual dining as households look to stretch budgets.Costco ($COST) — More meals at home mean bigger grocery baskets; Costco benefits from bulk food demand as diners skip sit-down restaurants.LosersDarden Restaurants ($DRI) — EPS miss and margin compression from higher food (especially beef) and marketing costs; value promos cap pricing power near term.Bloomin’ Brands ($BLMN) — Outback’s steak-heavy mix faces the same cattle-driven input inflation, with limited ability to push price without hurting traffic.Brinker International ($EAT) — Chili’s competes directly with Olive Garden/LongHorn on value; elevated promo and labor costs risk further margin squeeze.The Cheesecake Factory ($CAKE) — Higher labor and ingredient costs plus larger average checks make it vulnerable if consumers pivot to cheaper options.Texas Roadhouse ($TXRH) — Strong brand, but steak exposure makes margins sensitive to persistent beef inflation and potential check-management by guests.

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