Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
3/1/26: BREAKING: 3 Americans KIA, Oil $ SPIKE, Ayatollah Killed
01 Mar 2026
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Chapter 2: What are the latest developments in the US-Iran conflict?
You have some of these iconic structures, which have all been struck. Often, there's some intelligence now coming out that one of the reasons that the Iranians are doing this is that many U.S. personnel may have evacuated actually to those airports.
And of course, that's where the rich, the famous and some of the Westerners are staying in order to try and inflict damage both on the prestige of the country, but also to show their capabilities with those suicide drones, which they're very well equipped and have honed in the war in Ukraine.
Turning a little bit now to Abu Dhabi, again, these are this is insane video, like just again, as somebody who has lived in the Gulf, who has seen this, you are looking here at Abu Dhabi with the skyline and smoke just billowing out in the middle of the day amid some of the construction cranes. This is some of the video from some of the people. who are actually in the country.
But I mean, it's absolutely just shocking to see videos like this. And it has brought airspace to a standstill in the Middle East. And there's a lot of passengers who are actually stranded inside the country. I just saw today. Abu Dhabi is offering tourists that they're going to pay for their hotels while they're stuck inside of the country. So this is a full blown regional conflict.
We have strikes in Jordan and Bahrain and Kuwait, any place, you know, which is a U.S. ally. The Iranians trying to make sure that the entire region survives. feels the pain in order to demonstrate what we laid out very early on in our show, is that for them, they believe that this is the big one they need to try and establish some sort of credible deterrence or go down fighting.
And so far, they don't yet seem to be deterred. Current U.S. reporting is claiming that approximately half of Iranian ballistic missile launch sites have been destroyed. Now, of course, that's from the United States and from Israel. So we don't know what the true number of that is. But of course, that still means that some 50 percent are still active.
And you have ballistic missiles and interceptors which are all flying through the air in the Middle East over U.S. bases in Riyadh, by the way, also in Saudi Arabia. So this is, I mean, absolutely insane now so far. Zooming out a little bit for the major geopolitical situation, what everybody always had their eyes on with a potential Iranian conflict is the Straits of Hormuz.
And right now, there are some very troubling reports now coming out of the Straits of Hormuz. There was initial reporting that Iran had been going over VHF radio. to many of the ships in the Gulf telling them that the Straits of Hormuz are closed. There were a few ships that were able to transit. I believe that they were Chinese flagged carriers.
However, we do know this from the West, from the Financial Times. Insurers are going to cancel policies and raise prices for ships in the Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz. Brokers say that the cost of coverage will increase by as much as 50% after the conflict has erupted. War risk insurers submitted cancellation policies for notices covering ships moving through the key oil choke point.
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Chapter 3: What does the death of the Ayatollah mean for Iran's political landscape?
Of course, that's going to be passed on. for all of us in the price of oil. Insurance prices for ships traveling through the Gulf had been about 0.25% of the replacement cost of the vessel. That could now jump up as much by half. So for example, a $100 million vessel, this would mean an increase of $250,000 to $375,000 per voyage.
Insurance costs for ships calling at Israeli ports will also be set to rise by some 50% as underwriters are bracing for retaliatory action by Iran. Cargo war risk insurers, which cover commodities on tankers, also said they were prepared to cancel policies on Monday. After canceling policies, the insurers are then expected to renegotiate coverage, obviously at higher prices.
Pretty interesting, right? A bigger, bigger question here about how insurers can just cancel your policy if they want to. So Reuters reporting this morning from oil analysts that you are probably set to see a major increase in price of gas at the pump starting this week. Oil is currently set to jump at least 10% on the Iran conflict. Analysts predicting it could go to some $100 per barrel.
It was between $72 and $65 at the close of markets on Friday. So it's pretty significant, almost a 30% increase. Also, I talked about the airspace shutdown that happened. Well, there has also been a major shutdown in sea traffic, not just in the Straits of Hormuz, but the Dubai port, DP World, will suspend Dubai operation. And MSC is stopping all Middle East bookings.
And I believe Maersk also announced that they would not be trafficking through the Straits of Hormuz. So Dubai port is one of the, I believe it's the ninth busiest port in the entire world. Shut down for cargo, shut down for a lot of LNG, other oil assets moving through the Gulf, the Straits of Hormuz.
It's going to be more expensive for them to take alternative routes as well as oil production itself. I have seen a video that has come out of oil rigs in the sea that have actually been struck by some suicide drones. So the Iranians are really throwing everything that they've got, which kind of gets us to a bigger, interesting question.
And I said I would circle back to this is Trump's goal in all of this. So Trump said a couple of very interesting things. There was, of course, that report or sorry, that truth social that I showed all of you for where he said that he potentially could give some sort of Delce Rodriguez style deal to some of the people who were in the Delcy Rodriguez-style deal to some of the IRGC. Wow.
Actually, I apologize. I'm going to have to interrupt this. Huge news just coming across the screen. Unfortunate that we have to be able to report this. U.S. Central Command, three American soldiers were killed during the operation against Iran. U.S. Central Command here. As of 9.30 a.m. Eastern Time, March 1st, three U.S.
service members have been killed in action, five seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury. Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions and are in the process of being returned to duty. Major combat operations continue. Our response is ongoing.
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