Is the neutral rate of interest going to start climbing after years of decline?

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Recorded04 Dec 2025

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Show notes

Monetary and fiscal policymakers use a variety of metrics to inform their decisions, but among the most important is the neutral rate of interest, also known by economists as "r*," a number that isn't directly observable. It represents the prevailing rate of interest in a smooth-running economy, and can be thought of as a target for policymakers. A new study presents a model of r* showing its decline in recent decades, as well as some potential signs that it may start creeping back upward in the coming years. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Wendy Edelberg speaks to the authors of the new study, Lukasz Rachel of University College of London, about his research and the implications for the economy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

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