Iran War Part III?- with Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal
episodePreviously titled “Iran War Part III - with Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal” — renamed by the publisher on Aug 3, 2026
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There is an entire line of thought in Iran that says maybe we should pull the Israelis in. Because if the Israelis are in and we attack the Israelis and they need to respond, they are dragging the United States again to war. And this is exactly the kind of position that the Iranians want to present to the American public and to the world. Again, the Israelis are the puppeteers of the US president. And Israel is on high alert. as to the possibility of a surprise by the Iranian. That surprise could be an assassination of a high-level official, it could be a strike in a strategic location, or it can be the Iranians going first.
Both Netanyahu and Trump face decisive, crucial election campaigns in the autumn of 2026. However, here they split because for Trump, it's crucial not to have war come October or November. And for Netanyahu, it's crucial to have a war comes October or November because this is the only way to save his legacy after October 7th. All Netanyahu could have hoped for is for Trump to sign the MOU and then to see that Iran actually interpreted it as a decisive victory, as an outright victory. And that's why Trump will have to resume the war
It's 10 a.m. on Sunday, July 26th in New York City. It's 5 p.m. on Sunday, July 26th in Israel. As Israelis closely monitor developments in the Gulf and whether or not Israel will find itself in another direct hot war with Iran for the third time, all while heading into one of its most dramatic elections in history. Before we get to today's episode, a quick housekeeping note. We're inviting a small group of Arch Media listeners to help us develop and test new products and features. This may include interviews, focus groups, product testing, or other opportunities to share your perspective. If you're interested, you can find a short sign-up form in the show notes. Participation is completely voluntary, and we may not be able to include everyone who signs up, but we'd be grateful to hear from you.
Now on to today's episode. In June of 2025, Israel and Iran fought a 12-day war that ended with a nuclear superpower in the making stopped cold in its tracks. President Trump ordered B-2 bombers to forego Natanz and then brokered a ceasefire of sorts within the same month. It looked like the story of the Iranian nuclear program might actually have an ending. Then, in late February of this year, the U.S. and Israel entered an all-out war with Iran with the goal of securing Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, and some would say with the goal of toppling the regime itself. The war destroyed much of Iran's nuclear missile programs, its air defenses, drone and naval capabilities, its military leadership and command structure, while also severely damaging some of Iran's critical infrastructure.
Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Over the following months, a ceasefire calcified into a memorandum of understanding that, on close reading, gave Tehran almost everything, or at least a lot, it needed to survive and rebuild. Enrichment was paused, but for a fixed 12 to 15-year window, with the fate of the enriched uranium stockpile itself left deliberately ambiguous. Ballistic missile limits only touch long-range systems Iran claims it wasn't building in the first place. And most remarkably, the MOU created a new Iranian bureaucracy that decides who gets to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point carrying nearly a fifth of the world's oil, run on Iranian terms, dressed up as diplomacy.
Now it's late July 2026 and the MOU has effectively and predictably collapsed. U.S. attacks on Iranian infrastructure have been escalating. Iran has been attacking U.S. targets in the region. Hormuz is contested. Oil markets are moving. And increasingly, analysts are assessing that part three of this war could take place, perhaps within days, potentially with Israeli forces, which have been on high alert.
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