An economic forecast is coming from Government today
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk with Aviva Insurance.
What economic forecast is the government expected to announce today?
Now we're expecting this economic forecast from the government today. We do expect to hear that the Irish economy will keep growing despite what's going on in the world. I'm joined by political correspondent with the Irish Examiner, Louise Byrne. Good morning, Louise. Morning, Clare. So what do we know about the message that we're expecting to hear from government as part of the spring statement?
Yes, so this is kind of a new statement that we're getting from Simon Harris and Jack Chambers after Cabinet this morning. And it's essentially going to lay out where Ireland is financially. Now, as part of this, obviously, the war is continuing in the Middle East and the impact of the war in Iran is having huge impact on the energy prices and fuel prices. and all of these kinds of things. So as part of the spring economic forecast, Pánaiste Simon Harris, who's also the finance minister, asked officials in the Department of Finance to put together three scenarios to see what would happen kind of in the good, bad and ugly situation, I guess you could say. So what they have come back with is three scenarios.
So the baseline scenario, which you would imagine is if nothing you know, if everything went back to normal, etc., then you have the adverse scenario and the severe scenario. So what we are expecting ministers to be told this morning is that in all of these scenarios... Ireland's economic growth will continue. However, depending on which scenario you're in, that economic growth will just be at a slower rate. So the Tánaiste are very keen to stress yesterday that, you know, we're coming at this from a good place no matter what happens. But Jack Chambers is also expected to tell ministers at Cabinet this morning with his public expenditure hat on that they also need to control their spending and rein in their spending.
So that's a message we've heard before from him. Whether he will have any impact this time is anybody's guess. But, you know, they seem to be trying to warn them that things might not go as well as is expected.
And Louise, is that message of reining in your spending directed particularly at the Department of Education?
One would imagine so. We obviously know that Hildegard Nocton has defended a near 500 million euro overspend in the Department of Education and said that, you know, when she went into the department in November, it would have been that she thought it was underfunded. And, you know, this has been a long running overspend in the department. It certainly didn't start with Hildegard Nocton. But Jack Chambers has kind of been steadfast and has warned that if one department is to have an overspend where the money is going to have to be found from other ministers' departments to match it and to kind of try plug the hole. So you would imagine it is very much aimed at Hildegard Nocton. But don't forget, there's been overruns in health.
There's been overruns in other departments. Education is the issue today and I think it's a warning to other departments not to become an issue as we go down the line and towards the budget in October.
The other word knocking around in advance of this statement is stagflation. And nobody likes stagflation, do they Louise? Because that is high inflation but nothing is really growing around it. That is not a good place. Nobody wants to be there. But are we expecting to hear that word from Jack Chambers today?
Unfortunately, we are.
How is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East affecting Ireland's economy?
And he will tell his cabinet colleagues that there is a risk of stagflation the longer the conflict in the Middle East goes on. And I think the issue is we're kind of planning in the dark, aren't we? Because we don't really know what's going to happen next with the Middle East. We've had kind of a few false dawns over the last couple of weeks where it looks like it's. over, it looks like the Strait of Hormuz is going to open and then all of a sudden everything changes. So he is warning that the longer this goes on, the bigger the risk of stagflation, which I think nobody wants to see.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–0:09
2
What economic forecast is the government expected to announce today?
0:09–3:17
3
How is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East affecting Ireland's economy?
3:17–4:20
4
What scenarios has the government prepared for the economic forecast?
4:20–9:39