Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk. With Aviva Insurance.
Well, I'm joined in the studio now by the Minister for Public Expenditure, Infrastructure, Public Service Reform and Digitalisation, Jack Chambers. Minister, you're welcome to the programme. Morning, Clare. Thank you. So listen, you had a pretty abysmal weekend in the by-elections for Fianna Fáil. You lost your deposit in Dublin Central. John Stephens got 4.2% of first preferences there.
Chapter 2: What were the recent by-election results for Fianna Fáil?
And then in Galway, your candidate came fourth in terms of first preference votes. What went wrong?
Well, look, obviously we're disappointed with both of the electoral results there, but we're coming at a point of weakness in both of those respective constituencies. Dublin Central was our second worst constituency in the last general election. Galway West was, we polled below our average results across the general election in 2024. So I think what we had here was two new candidates.
both who were just first elected in 2024 in the local elections, who were, I suppose, building a base compared to some of the more established candidates, some of whom got elected. For example, Seán Cain is someone who I want to congratulate Seán Cain and Daniel Ennis for running very successful campaigns and wish them well as they come into the Dáil this week. But look, we'll reflect on that.
But I think we've used by-elections in the past as a platform of growth to build, continue to build a party for candidates who then progress into the Dáil. For example, take John Lahart in recent years, you know, he used it in 2014 to become a TD in 2016. Shane Moynan in 2019, then is now a TD from 2024.
You know, these were challenging constituencies for us in the context of our base vote on a very successful day in 2024, where we came out as the largest party in the Dáil and also the largest party in local government.
I'm sure, though, that you have read the commentary this morning with some of your own party members saying that Micheál Martin has turned Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael into the one entity in voters' minds. And that was borne out when we saw the transfer pattern. in Galway West in particular, where the bulk of the votes for your candidate went to Fine Gael. Does that concern you?
Absolutely not. I think for some people, they were voting for a more centrist proposition in the context of, you know, voting for maybe some like-minded candidates. And, you know, I think that's, you know, we have to respect voters' use of the transferable vote. But, you know, when it comes to both Galway West and Dublin Central, it's about strengthening the organisation, looking to the future.
In Dublin Central, we haven't had a TD since 2007. We haven't had a councillor in the North Inner City for well over 10 years.
But that's a failure, do you know what I mean?
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Chapter 3: How does Minister Jack Chambers explain the party's performance?
It's a weakness of organisation and I think that requires a much greater resolve from us collectively within the party as ministers, as TDs, to strengthen that organisation, work with John Stevens and the local organisation to rebuild, identify candidates early to get seats in the North Inner City. So we offer a stronger platform come the general election.
But I know we've had challenging by-election results in the past where when it comes to the national elections under Micheál Martin's leadership, we've continued to outperform many of the opinion polls and many of the expectations and the commentary in studios like this.
It's a hard one to take that Fine Gael managed to buck the trend, saying that government parties don't win by-elections. Fine Gael do. Fine Gael just did.
Well, I think if you look at their results, I mean, they had a much bigger reduction in their vote in Dublin Central, for example, that went from about 17% to 11%. So that was quite a big contraction relative to their general election result.
They had an established senator, someone who was a TD on two previous occasions, a former government minister, who I think had much stronger recognition across the Galway West constituency.
So it's a candidate selection failure, perhaps.
But I think it's, I mean, different parties have different strategies. And I think, you know, for us, it was about we had two new candidates, two relatively new councillors in both constituencies. And it's about building for the future.
And I'm confident in the context of the strength of our wider organisation in terms of a future local or general election that we'll be competitive in every constituency. It's about identifying where we don't have seats. Dublin Central is a constituency where we have consistently performed poorly in recent elections in both the local and general election.
And it was always going to be an uphill battle and challenge to compete. And we know voters obviously solidify around those whom they see as likely to win a particular election when it comes to a by-election. And that's why you saw... two or three candidates in both constituencies gain a significant vote share was less fragmented than we might see in a general election.
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Chapter 4: What strategies does Fianna Fáil have for future elections?
Absolutely. And if these costs were to be made permanent reductions in the context of excise or other areas... That would have implications in our wider medium term fiscal planning. And that's why we're correct in making sure they're temporary.
But obviously, if there's a continued exceptional spike in energy prices, we're a government that's running the economy well and we have fiscal buffers in place to be able to intervene. And that will take an informed decision at that point.
OK, now, Eamon Ryan was in here last week. He's hopping mad over your infrastructure plans. He says they're going to ride roughshod over the climate action commitments that the government has signed up to. Is it a case of build these roads at all costs now?
Well, we want to get things done. And I think that the problem is we've got excessively tied up in bureaucracy, red tape and endless risk of judicial reviews. And I've taken... a significant period of time to build the evidence base, what's working, what isn't, and I want to rebalance regulation.
In certain instances, we've got a chilling effect coming from the courts where we've seen endless judicial reviews taken against projects. With the Supreme Court decision on Section 15 of the Climate Act, which reflected, I think, you know, a very serious kind of subjective risk around the climate assessments of particular projects.
And what I've said in the critical infrastructure bill, which we're fast tracking, is that we're removing section 15 for projects that are designated. So, for example, take the Galway Ring Road. do we hand that over to the courts for an endless series of years in assessing whether it meets particular climate commitments or do we build it and get it done?
And there's multiple projects which are in the National Development Plan. We've made commitments to communities on building these projects. And my central focus in government is to build momentum around this.
We've had a strong... But your ministers still have legal obligations to meet climate targets. So how do they do both?
So what we're saying is ministers have legal obligations within their overall sector, but to nitpick on an individual project and undermine our ability to deliver that, I think is an excessive interpretation of climate legislation. It could mean that nearly every road would be restricted or undermined because of a particular climate assessment.
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Chapter 5: How does the party plan to address its weaknesses in certain constituencies?
I've been asked this question, which has just come in so many times. And now that I have you here, I'll ask you it. Why can't we increase the grants for people to retrofit and get solar panels? And we've had other people say to us, why don't they just allow everybody to get solar panels for free? Wouldn't that make a huge difference to the cost of living, point one?
So Dara O'Brien has expanded the grants for windows and doors, for example. So we've broadened the criteria in which people can get retrofitting grants. It's not solely for a deep retrofit. There's been, I suppose, a more pragmatic approach taken to that. But we have to be balanced around the level of grants we can provide for.
But you're under such pressure when it comes to cost of living and in particular people's energy bills. Would that not be an easy win for the government?
The overall price of solar panels has reduced in recent years and there are grants obviously attached to people getting... solar panels presently, but we have to protect some of the investment that's going into retrofitting.
It is an overall balancing act and the, you know, Dara O'Brien has put a lot of work with the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland into ensuring we better deliver across the capital that we've set aside for this.
Okay, now you've levied, you and your officials, you've levied other government departments to cover this overspend in education. But there were reports over the weekend that the entire government overspend could be between 5 and 10 billion this year. Do you expect that will happen?
No, absolutely not.
Well, because the record isn't great. I mean, the record is 5 billion, 7 billion in 2024.
On average, in recent years, it has been around that number. What we've seen this year is obviously our overall plan across about 16 of the 18 government departments are on profile. where we've had an overspend is in education.
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