Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk. With Aviva Insurance.
Now, despite announcing that a deal was close between the US and Iran, Donald Trump has since seemed to urge caution, instructing negotiators to take their time before entering into any agreement. To sift through this mixed messaging and to give us the latest, I'm joined now by Middle East journalist and analyst Borzu Daragahi and senior counsel specialising in maritime law,
Darren Lahan but Borzu I'll come to you first for the latest on this where are we with this negotiation with this proposed deal?
Well, there was a sequence of events. It seemed to have begun with Donald Trump posting really extraordinary news on his Truth Social social media account, saying that he had spoken to all these leaders from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, Turkey, and they had convinced him to sign on to this
30 or 60 day memorandum of understanding with iran that a deal was very close it was very different from his usual language on his social media posts but then in reaction to that social media post there is this torrent of commentary criticism from certain voices in washington often referred to as the blob this kind of neoconservative
very pro-Israel consensus inside Washington, criticizing him, calling Trump a traitor, calling him a betrayer of the Iranian people and of U.S.
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Chapter 2: What recent developments have occurred in US-Iran negotiations?
allies and so on. And then after that, he seemed to back off. And then the Iranians came out with messaging that seemed to be backing off from the news of an imminent deal.
So he is under real pressure to keep this war going.
well I think he is under pressure and I think that that is what a certain constituency in Washington would like this permanent state of war that includes the Israel lobby also includes defense contractors military people who make a lot of money off of these wars I think it also includes oil interests who are Donald Trump's golf buddies.
This has been good for the energy companies, this state of scarcity because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction in the supplies of oil and natural gas.
So what would success look like for the Trump administration in that scenario? Because we heard, you know, Rubio saying, you know, we're going to get the Strait reopened. And we think about that for 10 seconds and realise, well, that's where you started. So all of this has been for nothing or could potentially be for nothing.
I think that's really the really good question, Claire. What does the Trump administration actually want? And the problem is that you have a deal that's there to be grabbed. And the problem with that deal is that it looks like a lot like the one that Barack Obama signed with the Iranians in 2015, along with the rest of the international community.
Donald Trump doesn't want to be compared to Barack Obama. Donald Trump thinks he's better than Barack Obama. And so that is kind of the problem. I think there are serious negotiators, though, right now on the American side that are trying to get a deal. I think there is worry about the price of gas in the United States and the damage to the global economy that this standoff is causing.
And so they are trying to negotiate. Meanwhile, Donald Trump living in his sort of baby boomer generation, TV dominated world where he needs to look good, this game show host who needs to look like a winner. He's undermining his own negotiators.
And what about the Iranians? What do they want from this deal?
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Chapter 3: What criticisms has Donald Trump faced regarding the proposed deal?
They want to rebuild deterrence and they need money to do that.
They also want that toll kept in place, don't they? The shipping toll in the strait. Is that likely to be a deal breaker from the American side?
Well, I think it might even be a deal breaker from the Iranian side as well. I'm sure your next guest will talk more about this as an expert on maritime law. But Iranians seem to be realizing that having a toll on the Strait of Hormuz would be kind of a violation of norms and legality. And so now what they're talking about is an environmental tax.
that would help with the upkeep of the Persian Gulf in coordination with the neighbouring Omanis that are also on the Strait of Hormuz. And that is now what they're discussing. Let's see how that plays out.
Okay, well, Borzuk, stay with us if you can, because I am interested to hear what Darren has to say about all of this. Darren Lahan is a senior counsel specialising in maritime law. You're welcome to the programme, Darren. I heard the former CEO of Maersk Shipping this morning saying that even if a deal is done today,
The likelihood of shipping returning to normal anytime soon in this region is it's just not going to happen because there will be a fear factor there when it comes to the shipping companies that the piece won't hold. Do you share that view?
Yes, Clare, good morning. It's not like flicking a switch where the light will come on. In this case, flicking the switch and the straits are reopened. There are two aspects to this. Firstly, there's what countries do, international states. And secondly, there are how international markets respond.
And I think it's just important for context that everyone remembers that normally a fifth of the international oil supply and a fifth of the international liquefied gas supply passes through these straits. every day in normal circumstances.
And there are huge sums of money involved there, both from the shipping companies themselves, who own the vessels sailing through it, the people who own the oil or the liquefied natural gas that's on those ships, and the people who are receiving it. So people are going to be risk adverse. And that's not just in an abstract sense, Clare.
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Chapter 4: Why is there pressure to maintain a state of conflict in the Middle East?
Why wouldn't we impose a toll in Ireland on shipping passing through the Irish Sea? These rules develop organically for a reason. It benefits most people most of the time to have a safe, firm and fair system for the transiting of international goods. And if that doesn't exist, problems arise.
For example, how would you go about paying a toll to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, as the Iranians are calling it, which is the IRG, if the payment of such a toll would violate, say, for example, EU law in terms of payment to a prescribed body or other forms of international law.
So it would set a very dangerous precedent and will be contrary to what's been going on for, as I said, hundreds and hundreds of years.
And ultimately, it'll be the insurance companies, right, who decide whether this thing is working freely or not? Absolutely.
Absolutely. I mean, as you said at the outset, I mean, the Iranians and the Americans could say, look, we're calling a halt to this and the straits are reopened. But it's the people in the insurance companies will ultimately have to say, are we happy to ensure the risk? of vessels going through there, for example, in relation to mines or whatnot.
How long a period will it take for those people sitting in their offices to be satisfied that it makes commercial sense to allow this trade to restart again? And that's the long-term effect, the one to five years impact on prices. not only of oil and gas, but all of the derivatives therefrom.
Okay, we could be a way off yet.
Darren Lehan, Senior Counsel, thank you for joining us along with Borzu Daragahi, who's a Middle East journalist and analyst.
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