Is there an end in sight for the war in the Middle East?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk. With Aviva Insurance.
Now, despite announcing that a deal was close between the US and Iran, Donald Trump has since seemed to urge caution, instructing negotiators to take their time before entering into any agreement. To sift through this mixed messaging and to give us the latest, I'm joined now by Middle East journalist and analyst Borzu Daragahi and senior counsel specialising in maritime law, Darren Lahan but Borzu I'll come to you first for the latest on this where are we with this negotiation with this proposed deal?
Well, there was a sequence of events. It seemed to have begun with Donald Trump posting really extraordinary news on his Truth Social social media account, saying that he had spoken to all these leaders from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, Turkey, and they had convinced him to sign on to this 30 or 60 day memorandum of understanding with iran that a deal was very close it was very different from his usual language on his social media posts but then in reaction to that social media post there is this torrent of commentary criticism from certain voices in washington often referred to as the blob this kind of neoconservative very pro-Israel consensus inside Washington, criticizing him, calling Trump a traitor, calling him a betrayer of the Iranian people and of U.S.
What recent developments have occurred in US-Iran negotiations?
allies and so on. And then after that, he seemed to back off. And then the Iranians came out with messaging that seemed to be backing off from the news of an imminent deal.
So he is under real pressure to keep this war going.
well I think he is under pressure and I think that that is what a certain constituency in Washington would like this permanent state of war that includes the Israel lobby also includes defense contractors military people who make a lot of money off of these wars I think it also includes oil interests who are Donald Trump's golf buddies. This has been good for the energy companies, this state of scarcity because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction in the supplies of oil and natural gas.
So what would success look like for the Trump administration in that scenario? Because we heard, you know, Rubio saying, you know, we're going to get the Strait reopened. And we think about that for 10 seconds and realise, well, that's where you started. So all of this has been for nothing or could potentially be for nothing.
I think that's really the really good question, Claire. What does the Trump administration actually want? And the problem is that you have a deal that's there to be grabbed. And the problem with that deal is that it looks like a lot like the one that Barack Obama signed with the Iranians in 2015, along with the rest of the international community. Donald Trump doesn't want to be compared to Barack Obama. Donald Trump thinks he's better than Barack Obama. And so that is kind of the problem. I think there are serious negotiators, though, right now on the American side that are trying to get a deal. I think there is worry about the price of gas in the United States and the damage to the global economy that this standoff is causing.
And so they are trying to negotiate. Meanwhile, Donald Trump living in his sort of baby boomer generation, TV dominated world where he needs to look good, this game show host who needs to look like a winner. He's undermining his own negotiators.
And what about the Iranians? What do they want from this deal?
Oh, they want money. I mean, they want sanctions relief. They want unfreezing of Iran's own assets, billions of dollars in accounts around the world that the U.S. prevents them from getting access to. They want to impose a toll, which is probably illegal, but perhaps some kind of taxation system on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. They want to rebuild. They want to stabilize their economy. They want to keep the people happy. They want to pay off their proxy forces that have proven somewhat useful in this recent conflict. And they probably want to rebuild their military capacity as well, seeing that they were on the right track militarily with their missiles and their drones.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–1:37
2
What recent developments have occurred in US-Iran negotiations?
1:37–4:28
3
What criticisms has Donald Trump faced regarding the proposed deal?
4:28–10:42
4
Why is there pressure to maintain a state of conflict in the Middle East?
10:42–12:36