Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk. With Aviva Insurance.
Now we move to what's happening right now in London because Keir Starmer is gearing up to face his cabinet soon in this hour, fighting to stay on as Prime Minister. At least 74 Labour MPs have now urged him to resign immediately or draw up a timetable to do so. Pressure has been building on Keir Starmer after Labour's disastrous performance in last week's local elections.
He has said he won't walk away, but will that change in the coming minutes and hours? Well, I'm joined on the line by Ian Dale. LBC presenter and also Mark Paul, London correspondent with the Irish Times. Ian Dale is with us, watching and waiting, no doubt.
Chapter 2: What challenges is Keir Starmer facing as Prime Minister?
Ian, this is a crucial hour, isn't it?
Well, it is. I've been watching all of the different cabinet ministers walk into Number 10 Downing Street, all being shouted at by the waiting media. Is he going to resign? And the truth is, none of us know. I think it is possible, it's even likely. We've had the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, a key ally of his. doing the morning media round.
And he's had a very hangdog expression. He wasn't sort of taking the fight to the media.
Chapter 3: Why are Labour MPs urging Starmer to resign?
He was very reflective. And it seems to me, all the mood music is that Keir Starmer is going to set out a timetable for his departure. He's not going to go... If he does resign, he's not going to go immediately because there isn't a ready successor. So I suspect he will stay in office for several months while the Labour Party has a leadership election.
And how will that look? That's going to be very messy, isn't it?
Chapter 4: What does the local election performance mean for Starmer's future?
Well... If you look at various changes of Prime Minister over the past 10 years, on one occasion there was a coronation where there wasn't a leadership election. The Conservative Party just decided that they wouldn't have one. And Rishi Sunak emerged as a successor to Liz Truss. I don't think that's going to happen here.
The Labour Party normally take about three months to run a leadership election, which in government terms is a huge amount of time. And the problem they've got is that the financial markets are already in a state of flux and our borrowing levels, the bond yields are higher. at the moment than they were when Liz Truss' mini-budget happened.
Now, if they get the impression that there's going to be political instability over the next few months, which inevitably there will be, those bond markets are going to go crackers, which means that the cost of government borrowing goes up, it means that the cost of borrowing for individuals with mortgages that goes up, inflation goes up, and any growth agenda is out of the window.
So this is a very, very difficult time.
The bond markets, though, are they reacting to the possibility that Labour may install a more left-leaning leader, Ian? Is that at play here too?
Yes, I think that is partly what's going on. And it is very possible that Labour do that. I mean, Labour is, in theory, a left of centre party. And two of the main candidates for the succession, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham, although he's not an MP at the moment, so that's another fly in the ointment. If either of them took over, I think most people expect Labour
a more left-wing economic policy. Ed Miliband, who led the Labour Party for five years between 2010 and 2015, he is seen as the kingmaker and he wants to be Chancellor of the Exchequer. Well, he will be a much more left-wing Chancellor of the Exchequer than Rachel Rees has been.
Ian, stay with us. I want to bring in Mark Paul at this point. Mark, do you think that Keir Starmer's chances of staying on after this Cabinet meeting are as dismal as Ian predicts?
I think it's very, very difficult for a cabinet, for a prime minister to stay on, and not just with the amount of MPs who have called for him to go. I mean, that number alone, he could probably survive. But it's the fact that...
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Chapter 5: What are the implications of a potential leadership change in Labour?
I think a lot of Labour people will hope for some sort of coronation. That's not going to happen. West Streeting is seen as a Blairite on the right of the Labour Party, and there'll be a lot of enemies that will try and stop him. Angela Rayner has a huge problem in her tax affairs. still haven't been sorted out.
So I can't see how she can run until HMRC, His Majesty's Revenue and Customs, until they have cleared her tax affairs and she's repaid what she owes. Because, I mean, if she did run and win without that having done, and then they do come down on her like a ton of bricks, well, then she would have to go as well. And we're in this sort of doom loop of leadership crises yet again in this country.
All right, and they're still arriving there as we speak. And I see in the last few minutes there has been a resignation of a government undersecretary, Miata Fanbula, which is the latest news to emerge from Downing Street. We'll keep a close eye on that. But for now, Ian Dale from LBC and Mark Paul from The Irish Times, thank you both for being with us.
The Clare Byrne Show with Aviva Insurance. Weekday mornings at nine on Newstalk. Conversation that counts.