Latest on the conflict in the Middle East
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What recent events prompted Israel's attack on Beirut?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk with Aviva Insurance. US President Donald Trump has said once again that the Iran war will be over quickly. But on the other battlefront, Israel launched an attack on Beirut last night for the first time since a ceasefire was agreed. To give us the latest on the conflict in the Middle East, I'm joined by Matt Fry, Channel 4 presenter. Hello, Matt. Yes, hello. How are you, Clare? I'm good. Let's turn to Beirut first and Israel launching this attack last night. What happened? What do we know about what happened?
Well, as far as I know, there was an attack on central Beirut, which has not happened for a long time. And I think the Israelis are claiming that this was a Hezbollah target and therefore they were completely within their rights to break the ceasefire and hit the target. I mean, it shows you just how vulnerable the ceasefire in Lebanon is. And even though Donald Trump has read the Israelis, the riot act not to break the ceasefire.
How fragile is the ceasefire situation in Lebanon?
I remember there was a very stern phone call a couple of weeks ago when the the Israelis' position was in danger of exploding all the ceasefires in the region. Despite that riot act, occasionally they feel incumbent to intervene. And I think this is a portent of what might happen if there is a lasting ceasefire in the Iran war, that whenever the Israelis feel that there's unfinished business, and they very much feel, as I've been told by a couple of Israeli officials, that there was unfinished business in Tehran, that they have the right to intervene in order to finish regime change, they could do so. So it shows you just how fragile the whole situation is.
I mean, we have heard over the last 24 hours or so just how close we're getting to a sustainable deal between Iran and the United States. Do you think that this will put the moxie on that?
No, I think that's not at the moment. I think the bigger issue is can they reach a deal? Can Tehran and Washington agree reach a deal, and I think we are getting closer to a deal for two reasons. Number one is that both sides are feeling the economic pain. Donald Trump at the petrol pump, he's very aware that this is an unpopular war, that rising petrol prices of 40%, 50%, or even more in places like California was never part of the deal. And meanwhile, the Iranians, because of the double blockade imposed by the Americans,
What economic factors are influencing negotiations between Iran and the US?
across the wider Strait of Hormuz into the Indian Ocean are also feeling a lot of pain. I mean, they're losing hundreds of millions of dollars a week in lost revenue because their oil tankers aren't getting through the land route via pakistan is not yet established enough to make up for what they've lost so they also need some uh resolution here and remember it's the riots in in january that almost you know that was the biggest challenge to the regime in half a century were caused because of economic pain which must now be far more severe the second reason is that there's a big summit coming up in beijing next week between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. This is arguably the most important meeting for Donald Trump in his second term so far.
And I think he will want this thing to be resolved by the time he shows up in Beijing. That summit, by the way, Claire, as you know, has already been postponed once because of the Iran war that was started at the end of February. He can't possibly postpone it a second time. And to show up in Beijing... will the world economy and indeed America's economy to some extent in the chokehold of a regime that supposedly was pummeled by sanctions and by bombs would be embarrassing.
But even if he does manage to resolve this one by then, how does he sell it as a win? You know, oh, the Strait is open. Yeah, it was open beforehand and it was running fine. Oh, we, you know, have pummeled the regime. Well, now you've got more hardline guys in.
How might the upcoming summit in Beijing affect US-Iran relations?
in charge in Iran. How can even Donald Trump, how can he sell this as a win?
Well, but Donald Trump can sell anything as a win. He just pretends it's a win. I mean, I guess what he could say is that the regime has been weakened in terms of its ballistic missile capability, which is probably true.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What recent events prompted Israel's attack on Beirut?
0:01–1:00
2
How fragile is the ceasefire situation in Lebanon?
1:00–2:30
3
What economic factors are influencing negotiations between Iran and the US?
2:30–3:59
4
How might the upcoming summit in Beijing affect US-Iran relations?
3:59–5:14
5
What challenges does Trump face in selling a potential deal with Iran?
5:14–6:56
6
How do rising oil prices impact the US economy and voter sentiment?
6:56–8:32
7
What is the current state of America's influence in the Middle East?
8:32–9:50