Chapter 1: What is the significance of the no confidence vote today?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk with Aviva Insurance.
Good morning. So listen, take us through what's going to happen today, at what time and so on.
So today is a pretty big day, one of those hectic days in Leinster House. Usually when they'd gather on a Tuesday afternoon, you know, after lunchtime at two o'clock will be leaders questions. But what they're doing today is they're sort of clearing the decks. The government will put down a counter motion.
So it would basically be a confidence motion in the government rather than a no confidence motion in the government. I'd say before the debate gets underway, there'll probably be a bit of a row given that leaders questions is being cancelled. So there'll be a procedural row that'll kind of delay things further.
Chapter 2: How is Sinn Féin criticizing the government's handling of the fuel crisis?
the usual carry on in the Dáil and then once they get down to it it'll be a confidence motion in the government so you'd expect the Tánaiste to speak first and then Sinn Féin and the opposition to respond.
The big question is what will the independents who support the government do? Do we have a sense of that yet?
I think the sense is like there's confidence definitely amongst the government parties. They're not fearing any deflections. There are nine independents supporting the government.
Chapter 3: What procedural changes are expected during the confidence motion debate?
Now, a number of those hold some form of, you know, office, junior ministers. The ones really that would cause most concern would be the Healy Rays, the Danny and Michael Healy-Ray.
Now, while Michael Healy-Ray is a junior minister and no one would expect him to vote against the government, all eyes will be on his brother, Danny Healy-Ray, and what he will do because he was quite critical yesterday and he said that Fianna Fáil TDs should themselves seek to replace Micheál Martin as their leader.
If he were to vote against the government, you know, then the question arises as to whether the Healey-Ray pact as of itself is broken and therefore Michael would lose his junior ministerial position. But I don't think anyone is anticipating really that Michael or Danny Healy will vote against the government, even though they're leaving open the prospect. They're not declaring.
They're usually, you know, super duper and answering their phone straight away. But they haven't really been talking to the journalists over the past 24 hours. So I think they're definitely keeping the suspense there. And, you know, it is a possibility that one of them might deflect. But I don't think the fear is real as of yet.
OK. And this debate today, will it focus on the reasons why the protests happened or that government handling of the protests or will it be a good mix of both?
It's going to be a mix and it's going to be very interesting to hear the opposition speaking and where all the various components of opposition stand. And I think the approach of government will be to sort of deflect the focus back onto the opposition for how they approached all of these issues. Now, it's no doubt been like, you know, the worst week for the government.
It's been a political crisis for the government that they have to sort of regain the narrative from. They have to show that there is some leadership because there was a real lack of leadership in the country last week. So that is the task of the government parties.
And then for the opposition, there's very mixed views and mixed perspectives and mixed ideologies on the opposition benches, even though they all support the protesters. So, you know, for example, you know, how close will Sinn Féin be to the other parties on the left who they joined for the campaign for President Catherine Connolly?
Because what we saw is just a few short months back, Mary Lou MacDonald taking to podium, you know, holding hands up in the air with Holly Kearns, Ivana Bacik, Paul Murphy, Roger Gorman of the Greens. And then in the past week, we've seen Sinn Féin, you know, on a podium with Independent Ireland and AIM2.
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Chapter 4: What are the independents' positions regarding supporting the government?
And it doesn't satisfy everybody, obviously, but it was what was necessary to mitigate the worst possible effects on the Irish economy. And it's the government's duty to protect the Irish people from these kind of shocks and to anticipate them. I mean, you wouldn't need to be a politician or have a huge state apparatus behind you.
to understand that there was a huge danger of a massive increase in energy prices arising out of what Donald Trump and Netanyahu were doing.
It was inevitable that it was coming. Another matter I wanted to ask you about is, and much has been made of the Justice Minister's invoking of the Defence Forces last Thursday morning. Now it seems, according to reports in the Irish Independent, that the Defence Minister didn't know or wasn't aware that Jim O'Callaghan was going to do that. That does sound chaotic at least, doesn't it?
Well, I don't accept that the Defence Minister should have seen any different scenario. I mean, if it came to towing heavy vehicles away from oil depots and from O'Connell Street and the like, the fact is that the only physical machinery in the hands of the state wasn't the Defence Forces.
So I'd be very surprised if she didn't volunteer the services of the Defence Forces to assist the Gaurati in upholding the basic law of the land. So the basic rights of every citizen to go about their daily lives wouldn't be impinged in the manner it was, which was criminal.
But surely before he issued that public statement on Thursday morning, he should have had a full conversation with Helen McEntee, with the defence minister, that he was going to announce that it was within his right and that he could see it coming, essentially, that the army would be called in to help the Gardaí.
Sorry, this isn't a matter of tiffs between government ministers. It was plainly obvious as the eyes in your head that to remove these vehicles would require heavy vehicles and that the only people in the apparatus of the state who had that equipment were the army. And there's nothing unlawful about the use of army equipment to do that. Nothing whatsoever.
OK, and you don't see that there was an issue with lack of consultation between ministers?
I would imagine that the Minister for Defence, if she wasn't too busy with the Foreign Affairs Department, which she also has, would have been volunteering the assistance of the Defence Forces to ensure that the basic law of the country was being upheld.
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Chapter 5: How will the debate address the reasons behind the protests?
Where were you? That was not the case. I met with all of the protesters in Galway and some in Mayo. You were at the protest, though. I want to be very clear. The governments have done their level best to blacken the protesters and the ordinary hard-working men and women. I am not going to do that, Clare. I met with those protesters.
These are ordinary men and women who felt that they had no choice but to raise their voices. And let's remember, in March, this government reduced green diesel, for example, by 5 cents a litre. You might feel really strongly about something.
You might really be suffering, but you can't. I can't go out and shut down the country and not expect there to be repercussions for it. You just can't do that.
Well, the repercussions of what has happened, Clare, has been the government package that was announced. Because last week on Wednesday, I listened to a Fine Gael minister on the media in Mayo who outlined that it was his intention and the government's intention to continue with what he said was the modest and necessary increase of the carbon tax. That was what was on the agenda last week.
And it was as a result of people power that really brought the government really listening to the people in relation to this.
And the truth is, if the carers decide to shut down the M50, will you support them?
Nobody wants to see roads blocked.
Because that's what every group in the country should do now if it works. Shut the place down.
Clare, what the government needs to realise here is that it was the government's refusal, it was the government's stubbornness in relation to this that actually led to such a swell of demonstration and indeed public support as well. We have not seen this level of protest since the water crisis, really. We haven't seen pumps run dry since the 1980s.
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