The US blockade of Iranian ports is in place
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk with Aviva Insurance.
What is the current status of the US blockade on Iranian ports?
The US blockade of Iranian ports is in place now with Donald Trump threatening to eliminate Tehran's fast attack vessels if they come near American warships. The Iranian president has also said that threatening the strait will have widespread consequences for the world. I'm joined now by Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University, Paul Rogers. You're welcome to the programme, Paul.
Hi, good morning.
How is China responding to the US blockade of Iranian ports?
And this US blockade which came into effect yesterday afternoon, I see in the last hour, China has come out and said that the blockade around Iranian ports is dangerous and irresponsible. China is a huge player in this entire conflict, isn't it?
It is. And there's another report which isn't confirmed yet, that a Chinese ship has actually come through the strait and has not been intercepted by the american navy at least not as yet even though i believe it was one which you would expect the americans to actually try and prevent through so we simply don't know what's happening there but of course it does mean there's a much greater tension around really across the whole scene what does that tell you if they did allow the if the americans allowed the chinese through there must be some limit to the action that they're willing to take Well, there may be.
What conflicting messages are coming from the Trump administration regarding Iran?
And I think one of the problems is you're getting two different voices coming from within the senior realms of the Trump administration. Trump himself, who seems to play a sort of shooting from the hip and plays it very hard on occasions, but is hugely unpredictable. But then you have essentially J.D. Vance, the vice president, who seems to be taking a more cautious view. And right from the start of the conflict with Iran, he has really stayed more in the background and said very little, although he did become very prominent, of course, when we had the start of the negotiations a week or so ago. So it may well be that there are conflicting orders coming through from the center or at least uncertainty.
There's certainly uncertainty. There's no doubt about that. Where that leaves us. Sorry.
What challenges do the US and Iran face in negotiating a resolution?
J.D. Vance being sent there and I know some welcomed him entering the fray because he was seen as having a more moderate view of where this might go. But then he was widely ridiculed back at home, led by the Democrats. Of course, this is all political, but he had that situation with Viktor Orban where he went to Hungary. said he was the best man for the job. He gets beaten by a landslide. Then he goes to Islamabad and walks away with no deal. Do you think that he is the right person for the Americans to send to try and sort this out?
Given the group within the Trump administration, he was probably better than just sending Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are the normal people who go to these kinds of things, even though they have no real diplomatic experience. And certainly,
How does the blockade impact the Iranian economy and military capabilities?
are not sort of negotiated in this kind of area. So to that extent, he was probably the more appropriate person. But yes, I agree entirely with you on this issue of what happened with Orban. As far as what happened essentially in Islamabad, well, there seems to be one bout of negotiations which went on for the best part of 20 hours, but that was it. And since then, both the Iranians and people, if it's not actually Witkoff himself, sorry, if it's not actually... sort of J.D. Vance himself, then it's somebody close to him is saying there's still chance of further negotiations. So even there, we're getting sort of mixed messages. It would be almost impossible, one would think, for them to have got a deal in 20 hours of negotiations flat out because this is a complex situation and we're dealing with sort of decades of history.
And it takes a lot of skill, probably several days with really good mediators
What role does Israel play in the US-Iran conflict?
to bring size together. So it was a false expectation that you're going to get an immediate clear breakthrough. But behind all of this, all the time, you have these different angles coming from different parts of the administration, made even more extraordinary by this event in which Trump seems to have put online this picture of himself, who's almost sort of aping a biblical figure, possibly Jesus Christ.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–0:09
2
What is the current status of the US blockade on Iranian ports?
0:09–0:32
3
How is China responding to the US blockade of Iranian ports?
0:32–1:24
4
What conflicting messages are coming from the Trump administration regarding Iran?
1:24–2:13
5
What challenges do the US and Iran face in negotiating a resolution?
2:13–2:59
6
How does the blockade impact the Iranian economy and military capabilities?
2:59–3:58
7
What role does Israel play in the US-Iran conflict?
3:58–5:11
8
Why is the timing critical for both the US and Iran in this situation?
5:11–9:27