It was 2020 and plant-based meats were hot. Sales were up 45% that year and expectations were high. The industry set its sights on performing as well as plant-based beverages, which had reached about a 15% dollar share of the U.S. cow-based milk market at the time. In the $300 billion U.S. meat market, a 15% share would be a massive $45 billion prize. But then, starting in 2021, plant-based meats hit a wall. U.S. sales began three consecutive years of declines. Headlines described plant-based meats as “bleeding” and “just another fad”. So what happened? In this episode, Shayle talks to John Baumgartner, managing director of equity research for food and healthy living at Mizuho Securities. He explains the major factors that led to the decline—and why he’s still bullish on the long-term growth of the industry. They cover topics like: Why the plant-based beverage category is so different from plant-based meats Major factors in sales, including the Covid-19 bounce, flatlining household penetration, and inflation The under-no-circumstances crowd that will not consider plant-based meats Positive indicators for growth potential from other markets, such as Taiwan and western Europe Improvements in taste, mouthfeel, health, and price that could reinvigorate the industry Recommended Resources: Mizuho Securities: Plant-Based Food Market Overview & Outlook Good Food Institute: 2023 outlook: The state of the plant-based meat category Deloitte: Plant-based meat gets a reality check Sign up for Latitude Media’s Frontier Forum on January 29, featuring Crux CEO Alfred Johnson, who will break down the budding market for clean energy tax credits. We’ll dissect current transactions and pricing, compare buyer and seller expectations, and look at where the market is headed in 2024.

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