Housing recession’s long shadow, Apple iPhone flip out & Trump’s insane cash splash
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What is the weekly overview of the property panic, iPhone price surge, and market outlook?
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The Australian Financial Review
Hello, I'm James Thompson, senior Chanticleer columnist at the AFR. Welcome to our weekly news breakdown of all things business, finance, and markets. With me today, as always is my Chanticleer colleague. He's still devastated he'll never get to join the Live Golf Tour. It's Anthony McDonald. How are you, Anthony? I'm gonna have to work harder at this podcast thing, James. Fantastic. Well this week we examine the growing sense of panic inside Australia's property industry, we explain why your next iPhone is going to cost a lot more, and we look ahead to the next big test for financial markets. Okay, Anthony, now we all know that politicians can get a bit free and easy with handouts at election time. But have you ever seen something like this?
Donald Trump is promising that if the Republican Party wins the House and the Senate in the midterm elections, uh, which is in the first week of November, then he's going to give every American adult a $5,000 US special dividend. So that's about $7,000 in Australia. million pesos. We're talking about, oh, I don't know, one point three five trillion US here, Anthony. This is just a classic politician's bribe. It's amazing.
Isn't it, James? Like the only condition on that money is that it's spent in America. Right.
Okay.
Yeah. I've never seen anything like it. I mean, we know like you said, we know politicians throw the money around to try and secure or buy votes, but it's not normally this egregious. Uh legally it's not considered a bribe because he's offering it to everyone, not just the people that vote for him, but the two things are kind of attached, right? Like you only get it if the Republicans win both the House and the Senate. So I mean you do kind of have to vote for him to get it in a way. But what happened to this being the economically rational side of politics, James. That's so much money at the time when they've already got forty trillion dollars of debt and that's already moving bond markets. You know, we've been talking about that a lot in recent weeks.
Totally. It's kind of like about a quarter of what the US brings in in revenue every year, the government. Like it's just a staggering amount. If if you did the maths on Australia, this would be equivalent to you and I and every other adult getting ten thousand dollars each for the next election, James. Like it is a seriously big chunk of money, a seriously big chunk of their revenue. And it looks from here like absolute insanity. I know some very clever people here who are big Trump fans and but I'm not sure how this one would make them do anything but scratch their head, really. It's just looks like peak populism, peak Trump to me. But James, what do bond markets make of this? Yeah, it doesn't exactly help
Their deficit does it? No, and and and you know the timing is exquisite. Bond markets have been rallying for two weeks. They've pushed even higher, bond yields have pushed even higher in the last couple of days because it looks like things are getting really serious in Iran. We've seen the price of oil shoot up to about $108 US a barrel. You know, it's up about 40% in the space of a couple of months now, oil, and that's really starting. Starting to feed through to yields. And when the bond market sees something like this, as you say, just more spending. Trump didn't say, Oh, don't worry, guys, I've got a plan to pay for all this by, I don't know, raising tariffs or raising taxes or something. He just put it out there and said, You know, here we go.
We're just gonna stimulate the economy a bit more. So bond markets will hate this. The pressure on bond markets is really starting to tell a around the world. I look at the ASX, Anthony. Uh-huh. We've now had seventeen sessions out of the last twenty-three trading sessions where the ASX has fallen.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the weekly overview of the property panic, iPhone price surge, and market outlook?
0:00–5:23
2
How does Donald Trump’s proposed $5,000 dividend for every adult affect bond markets and politics?
5:23–11:09
3
Why are bond yields climbing and what does that mean for Australian investors?
11:09–17:06
4
How is the Australian housing‑market recession impacting prices, sentiment and buyer behaviour?
17:06–41:16
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from Chanticleer
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