CommSec Market Update
AM 25 May 26: April inflation data & Trump's slow peace progress grip the ASX
24 May 2026
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
a listener production.
Middle East war developments and key inflation data in focus for investors. Wall Street edges up again with the Dow resetting its record high. And which Asian market is soaring? Good morning, I'm Gillian Bowen. It's Monday the 25th of May and this is the morning edition of the ComSec Market Update.
Chapter 2: What are the latest developments in the Middle East war and their impact on investors?
Well, it's been another weekend of trying to cut through the rhetoric surrounding the US-Iran war to try to get a clear picture of the actual state of play. The US president has been on social media on Sunday saying negotiations are progressing and the US relationship with Iran had become more professional and productive.
But he's added, and I quote, "...both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes." There's an exclamation mark after the word mistakes, by the way. Now, a day earlier, Donald Trump had said Washington and Iran had largely negotiated a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Chapter 3: How did Wall Street perform this past week?
And a reminder, before the conflict, which began back on February 28, this key maritime passage, that is the Strait of Hormuz, carried one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through it. So, From Iran's point of view, it's stressed differences remain on one or two clauses. So it appears negotiations are proceeding, but they won't be rushed. And so the waiting game continues.
So how's our share market shaping up today? Well, the ASX 200 futures are pointing to a drop of 0.7% at the open. They've been closed since Saturday morning. So before yesterday's developments on the Middle East conflict, There is key economic data in focus this week as well. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Statistics will release inflation figures for April, which investors will be watching closely.
CBA economists expect annual headline inflation to ease to 4.3% in April. And remember, we had the temporary fuel excise reduction in play during this time as well. As for the ASX 200, on Friday, it finished with a gain of 0.4% to 8,657. The top performing stocks in this index for Friday were 4D Medical and Guzman & Gomez, up 10.37% and 9.57%, respectively.
Over the last five days, the index has gained 0.3%. Let's move on to commodities. So global oil prices were higher on Friday on slow progress in US-Iran peace talks and a lack of clarity around the future of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Chapter 4: What key economic data should investors watch this week?
Brent crude futures settled up 0.9% at US$103.54 a barrel. We'll be watching what happens to prices given the latest talks to end the war. And a report has come through, actually, that a super tanker hauling Iraqi crew to China has left the Persian Gulf and crossed the US blockade into the Arabian Sea. Gold futures were lower on Friday, pulled down by rising oil prices that
kept inflation concerns in focus and increased bets for a US interest rate hike. The futures settled down 0.4% to US$4,523.20 an ounce. Base metal prices were higher on Friday. Copper futures gained 1.4%. Meanwhile, aluminium futures were 0.6% higher. Iron ore futures were down slightly to US$109.67 a tonne. If we have a look at currencies, they were mixed against the US dollar.
One Australian dollar is buying 71.18 US cents. The euro is worth 1.16 US dollars, while one US dollar is buying 159.18 Japanese yen. Okay, let's get a wrap of what's happened overseas with markets as they finish their trading week on Friday. So the Dow Jones Index back on Friday finished up 0.6%. The S&P 500 was 0.4% higher and the NASDAQ was up 0.2%.
So US share markets rising at the end of the week last week, as back then investors were weighing the likelihood of a near-term deal to end the war with Iran and also the strong corporate earnings season. So the Dow posted a record closing high for a second day, while the S&P 500 posted its eighth straight week of gains.
Semiconductor stocks, which have driven recent Wall Street gains, were mostly higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose, lifted by a 12% jump in Qualcomm, while Nvidia slipped almost 2%. Shares of US computer makers surged following strong results from China's Lenovo Group, which reported a better-than-expected 27% jump in quarterly revenue.
Dell Technologies hit a record high after rising 17%, while HP Inc. gained 15%. Nine out of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes gained, led by healthcare, utilities, industrials and technology stocks, communications and consumer staples lost ground. Also on Friday, Kevin Walsh was sworn in as the new Fed chair.
US government bond yields on Friday were mixed as investors assessed data pointing to an all-time low for US consumer sentiment in May. The two-year Treasury note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, was last up four points to 4.12%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down one point at 4.55%.
To the European markets, the FTSE Euro first 300 index and the UK FTSE 100 both ended Friday in positive territory off the back of technology stocks. So up 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. AI optimism that has boosted global indexes to record highs is spreading. So among European chip stocks, Infineon added nearly 8%, ST Microelectronics gained 5.2% and ASML rose 4.7%.
Among the decliners, Porch tumbled 13.4% after the Spanish perfumery ended merger talks with US cosmetics maker Estee Lauder. Julius Baer fell almost 7% after the Swiss bank's net new money inflows came in below expectations. Okay, let's look at what's on the watch list. In Australia, the major economic data point this week, as I said, will be the inflation figures released on Wednesday.
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