CommSec Market Update
Morning Report 20 Apr 26: Rocky open expected amid Iran uncertainty
19 Apr 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
a listener production.
We emerge from another weekend with no certainty on the US-Iran war. So it could be a rocky start to the week for markets. Good morning, I'm James Gruber. And I'm Gillian Bowen. It's Monday the 20th of April and this is the morning edition of the ComSec Market Update.
Chapter 2: What is the current uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict?
So it's the start of a new week and the status of the Middle East war is again as clear as mud. As usual, we look to social media to see the latest from Donald Trump. He's recently posted that US representatives would arrive in Pakistan on Monday evening for negotiations, again threatening new strikes unless Iran accepts his terms.
While Iran's state news agency has reported Sunday night their time, that Iran has rejected new peace talks with the US, with the ongoing naval blockade being among the reasons. Now, the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8, so they've got about a day to make progress before that ends.
A reminder too that a second ceasefire is also in effect, the one between Lebanon and Israel. And when markets were last opened, so Friday US time, investors were reacting to reports that the Strait of Hormuz was open for passage while that ceasefire was in place and also on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. So oil prices plunged, Wall Street indices scaled record highs and US treasuries surged.
but any suggestion of transit through the key maritime route didn't last long.
So US futures open shortly, and it'll be interesting to see the reaction to what's unfolded over the weekend after markets closed. As for the Aussie share market, the ASX 200 futures when they were last trading, were pointing to a 0.9% gain at the open this morning off the back of Wall Street's rally.
But that was before the Strait of Hormuz was closed again and this latest uncertainty on the Middle East conflict. On Friday, as a reminder, the ASX 200 snapped a three-week winning streak. down 0.15% for the week.
Gil, let's take a look at commodities. And oil again was the big story. Global oil prices plunged on Friday after the Strait of Hormuz was temporarily declared opened before it closed again on the weekend. Brent crude futures settled down 9.1% to 90.3%. US dollars a barrel, while NYMEX crude was 11.4% lower to 83.85 US dollars a barrel.
Obviously, given the weekend's events, oil prices may quickly reverse today. Base metal prices were mixed on Friday. Copper futures climbed 0.6% on Peace Deal Optimism, but aluminium futures were down 1.4% on easing supply concerns. Gold futures extended gains on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar. The futures settled up 1.5% to US$4,879 an ounce.
Meanwhile, iron ore futures were little changed, down 0.2% to US$106.85.
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Chapter 3: How are market reactions influenced by geopolitical developments?
In fact, the average return has been 19% over the following 12 months. So there's something for the optimists out there.
I'm an optimist. Thanks, James. That's it for today. Our team is monitoring developments on today's local trading session. So please join Stephen Daglian and Laura Bezzarati for the ComSec Market Update podcast this afternoon. I'm Gillian Bowen. And I'm James Gruber. Have a great day.
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