PM 14 Sep 26: Cautious start to a busy week
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Why is the Australian market starting the week cautiously ahead of the US interest‑rate decision?
A listener production.
It's been a cautious start to the week ahead of a key US interest rate decision in a few days time. And we've seen oil prices shoot higher again in today's session, keeping investors on edge. Good afternoon, I'm Laura Besserati. It's Monday, the 14th of September. Welcome to the Comsec Market Update. Well, happy Monday, everyone. It's certainly been quite a cautious start to the week. We're absolutely trading water as we head into the close, which has been the case for most of the session. Now, earlier today, we were up by a third of one percent at our best levels, down by roughly a tenth of one percent at our worst. So we have been trading in a very tight range, and investors just sort Of holding their breath ahead of a very busy week.
We're awaiting some key events later on this week, including that US interest rate decision, which will be uh Wednesday night or early Thursday morning our time. So, you know, of course, uh today's declines do follow our second worst week of the entire year last week. So the Aussie market was down something like 3% over the course of last week. The worst week of the year was actually the first week of March when we had just seen the war begin and the ACEX plunged by 3.8% in the space of that one week.
How did the latest US consumer‑price data change expectations for a Fed rate hike?
So down uh 3% last week. So very similar to those declines that we saw earlier on in the year. And of course, all of that hinging on the back of the fact that the Middle East situation seems to be escalating once again. We've seen oil prices surge up close. Close to 10% over the course of last week. They did end lower on Friday night, but today we have seen oil prices shoot higher once again. So that's really added to the caution that we've been seeing in markets and really investors waiting for this potential interest rate hike that we could get in the United States. Now on Friday night, we did have an update on US consumer prices. We were saying last week that it was going to be super important on the inflation front.
We had business inflation and then, of course, consumer inflation on Friday night. Now, the headline number was largely in line with expectations, but the core number, which is more closely watched, came in a little bit higher than anticipated. So that's once again upped bets that the US Federal Reserve could actually hike interest rates. So at At the moment, sitting at an 88% chance that they will, in fact, hike in just a few days' time. So markets are very cautious ahead of that key day. Uh, we have some RBA speakers over the course of this week.
Which sectors are under‑performing today and what’s driving their weakness?
We had Sarah Hunter today and a few more later on in the week. In fact, on Friday, 9 30 a.m., we hear from most of the RBA officials. They'll appear before the House of Representatives in In Canberra. And that does include RBA governor Michelle Bullock. So investors will be listening very closely for any clues on interest rates, especially after last week. We did hear from some RBA officials, and they said the board may well have to raise interest rates if there is a sense that inflation is going to be stronger than we think. That was the exact quote and really highlighting ongoing concerns. About inflation. So we are at risk of an interest rate hike here in Australia as well later on in the month. All right, looking across the different sectors today, only three of 11 are falling.
We are seeing interest rate-sensitive tech stocks down the most, down by 1% as a group. Megaport contributing to that. It's the second worst performer today, down by a little over 8%, and declines across many. Of the other tech stocks. The materials sector down by roughly half of 1% in a mixed session across the uh different miners today, but certainly acting as a bit of a weight, and industrials down by just a third of 1%.
What factors made healthcare the top‑performing sector on the ASX today?
But all other sectors improving, but clearly by not enough to actually offset some of those other declines that we're seeing. And that's why we're almost completely flat. So healthcare is. Is the best performer. It's up one and a half percent, the financial sector up by around 0.4%, and many of the sectors are almost completely flat.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
Why is the Australian market starting the week cautiously ahead of the US interest‑rate decision?
0:02–1:28
2
How did the latest US consumer‑price data change expectations for a Fed rate hike?
1:28–2:46
3
Which sectors are under‑performing today and what’s driving their weakness?
2:46–4:03
4
What factors made healthcare the top‑performing sector on the ASX today?
4:03–5:13
5
How are renewed Middle‑East tensions pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation fears?
5:13–6:43
6
Which companies led the market winners today and what news sparked their moves?
6:43–7:58
7
What key economic events are on the calendar this week and how could they impact markets?
7:58–9:58
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from CommSec Market Update
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PM 10 Sep 26: ASX posts worst day in 3 months
AM 10 Sep 26: Oil surges above $100 a barrel
PM 09 Sep 26: ASX slides on rising tensions