European leaders say Russia is provoking NATO. How will the alliance respond?
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What recent incidents are European leaders citing as Russian provocations?
It's Consider This, where every day we go deep on one big news story. Today, NATO countries say Russia is testing them. How will the alliance respond? NATO's Article 5 is clear. An attack on one is an attack on all. But what counts as an attack? What about a drone packed with explosives discovered at the airport in Leipzig, Germany last month? Sie haben es getan. Wir wissen es jetzt. Germany's foreign minister, Johann Wadifull, said Russia was responsible. Russia denies it. What about sabotage? The U.K. arrested a man this month for allegedly working with Russian spies. Then there were the flares fired by a Russian warship at a Danish helicopter. And then, on Thursday, a warning from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a warning that Russia was planning more provocations.
These potential possible attacks...
How does NATO’s Article 5 define an attack and why is that important now?
Drone or missile attacks on frontline NATO countries that Tusk says Russia will pretend are accidents intended to weaken the alliance's willingness to respond collectively.
He
said difficult tests lie ahead. Consider this. NATO is bracing for hybrid warfare from Russia. It's a challenge with no easy answer. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.
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What did Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warn about Russia’s hybrid‑war tactics?
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It's Consider This from NPR. The hybrid warfare that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk predicted in the gray zone between fraught peace and active conflict, it puts NATO allies in a tricky bind. To understand what their options might be, I spoke with Richard Haass, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. So Prime Minister Tusk says he's basing this on intelligence he received from NATO, from Ukraine, from U.S. agencies. We don't know details of what the intelligence said. How seriously should we take this warning?
I also don't know the details, but I would take it seriously because... There's a certain logic to it from Vladimir Putin's situation. First of all, if Putin wants to do it, I don't think there's anyone in Russia who can stop him. He's essentially – he's deinstitutionalized that country.
Why does Richard Haass say Russia’s provocations could be low‑risk, high‑reward for Putin?
Why would
he want to? Why would he want to escalate?
One is to put pressure on European countries who are helping Ukraine economically or militarily. And he basically wants to say this is not cost-free. So this is a form of – deterrence, if you will, or interference in them to get them to change their policy. The other possibility, and the two are not mutually exclusive, is things have not gone great for him in Ukraine. So what he'd like to do is score something of a geopolitical win. Just imagine he does something, again, as was suggested in the so-called gray area. We're not talking about the Red Army, 50,000 troops coming across the border. We're talking about stuff that's much more subtle. And that's probably going to be below the level where many in NATO would directly respond.
It would certainly, I would think, be below the level that Donald Trump would want to respond. Indeed, it's not clear to me what sort of a provocation would be required for Donald Trump to respond since his enthusiasm for NATO is, shall we say, finite.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What recent incidents are European leaders citing as Russian provocations?
0:00–0:57
2
How does NATO’s Article 5 define an attack and why is that important now?
0:57–2:17
3
What did Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warn about Russia’s hybrid‑war tactics?
2:17–3:42
4
Why does Richard Haass say Russia’s provocations could be low‑risk, high‑reward for Putin?
3:42–5:09
5
How might subtle Russian actions like drone strikes create divisions within NATO?
5:09–6:52
6
What are the arguments for and against treating Russian denials as credible?
6:52–8:20
7
What strategic steps does Haass recommend NATO take in response to these threats?
8:20–9:12
8
How could U.S. policy, sanctions and a permanent base in Poland influence NATO’s next move?
9:12–10:20
Speakers
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