Is AI Trending Up or Down in 2026? | AI Reality Check
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What has actually happened in AI in 2026?
AI news comes at you fast. Each article feels more breathless and more terrifying than the last. But before you have a chance to see how any particular story turns out, there's 10 more in its place.
What is Open Claw and why is it significant?
I think this speed and lack of accountability can create a sense of overwhelming disruption and change that can really be pretty disquieting. Well, it's Thursday, which means it's time for an AI reality check episode. So I thought this would be a great opportunity to try to slow down this news onslaught and get a better sense of what has actually been happening in the AI space recently. All right, here's my plan. I've invited the AI commentator, Ed Zitron, to join me. And we're going to look at three of the biggest stories about AI to land in 2026 so far. including one in which Ed is actually very much involved. And what we're going to do is for each of these stories, we're going to take a closer look on what actually happened and how things have since turned out.
Our goal by the end of the episode is to answer a simple but critical question. Has 2026 been a good or bad year for AI so far? And we have a I'm Cal Newport, and this is Deep Questions, the show for people seeking depth in a distracted world. And we'll get started right after the music.
All right, Ed, well, it's been three or four months since you were last on the show, and there's been some big AI news since then. So I wanted to have you on to go through some of the big stories that have happened since January. And because you're a commentator who is Maybe I should say this, less impressible than the average AI commentator. I figured your point of view is good for my reality check audience. We're going to try to end this discussion by voting whether or not 2026 has been good or bad for AI so far. But what's your pre-vote? Where do you think, based on what you know, you're going to end up here?
Probably not a good time for them. It's just every time we talk, it's like there's very big news and everyone's like, oh, look, we've got a new number. It's even higher than usual.
How is Anthropic involved with the Department of War?
But the actual underlying economics and infrastructural layer, even just the service performance is worse. And it's very strange.
Well, this is part of the reason why I like doing these reviews with you is often the story will be big. Everyone will get worried about it. People will call people like you and I for quotes. And then everything moves on and there's no follow-up. And I think it's useful for calibrating how to react to the news story you're hearing now to occasionally go back and say, hey, what happened with that story that had me worked up a couple months ago? Which brings us to a great place to start because what was the first big story of 2026? I think arguably it would be Open Claw. Which I believe became generally available to the public later in January. Now I've broken this up into two sub stories. I want to start with like the easily dismissible one just because it's fun and then get to the more serious one.
I'm going to read you a quote and we'll get into it. So the easily dismissible but fun aspect of this story is when someone opened a Malt book. a social network that was configured so that it is easy if you're writing an OpenClaw agent to post on it. So they add hooks into it. So it was easy for your OpenClaw agents to post and read things from the social network for about four days. Everybody went crazy about Malt Book. I'm just going to read you a quick quote from your favorite publication, Axios, from the end of January. Imagine waking up to discover that the AI agent you built has acquired a voice and is calling you to chat while comparing notes about you with other agents on their own private social network.
It's not science fiction. It's happening right now, and it's freaking out some of the smartest names in AI.
What challenges are data centers facing in 2026?
Well, you're a smart name in AI, Zed, so are you still freaked out about Malt Book?
No, the moment I saw it, I'm like, A, this is just LLMs. This is just LLMs doing what they think a social network looks like.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What has actually happened in AI in 2026?
0:00–0:13
2
What is Open Claw and why is it significant?
0:13–2:20
3
How is Anthropic involved with the Department of War?
2:20–4:00
4
What challenges are data centers facing in 2026?
4:00–5:14
5
What are the implications of AI on content creation?
5:14–7:32
6
How does the AI industry impact job markets?
7:32–10:35
7
What are the financial dynamics of AI startups?
10:35–12:33
8
What is the future outlook for AI technologies in 2026?
12:33–1:12:57
Speakers
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