AI Could Give Humans MORE Control — Ozzie Gooen

Ozzie Gooen is the founder of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI), a nonprofit building software tools for forecasting and policy analysis. I’ve known him through the rationality community since 2008 and we have a lot in common.00:00 Introducing Ozzie02:18 The Rationality Community06:32 What’s Your P(Doom)™08:09 High-Quality Discourse and Social Media14:17 Guesstimate and Squiggle Demos31:57 Prediction Markets and Rationality38:33 Metaforecast Demo41:23 Evaluating Everything with LLMs47:00 Effective Altruism and FTX Scandal56:00 The Repugnant Conclusion Debate01:02:25 AI for Governance and Policy01:12:07 PauseAI Policy Debate01:30:10 Status Quo Bias01:33:31 Decaf Coffee and Caffeine Powder01:34:45 Are You Aspie?01:37:45 Billionaires in Effective Altruism01:48:06 Gradual Disempowerment by AI01:55:36 LessOnline Conference01:57:34 Supporting Ozzie’s WorkShow NotesQuantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) — https://quantifieduncertainty.orgOzzie’s Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/ozzie.gooenOzzie’s Twitter — https://x.com/ozziegooenGuesstimate, a spreadsheet for working with probability ranges — https://www.getguesstimate.comSquiggle, a programming language for building Monte Carlo simulations — https://www.squiggle-language.comMetaforecast, a prediction market aggregator — https://metaforecast.orgOpen Annotate, AI-powered content analysis — https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/open-annotate/Come to the Less Online conference on May 30 - Jun 1, 2025: https://less.onlineWatch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligencePauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.infoJoin the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at https://doomdebates.com and to https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

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