AI Doom Debate: Tilek Mamutov vs. Liron Shapira

Tilek Mamutov is a Kyrgyzstani software engineer who worked at Google X for 11 years before founding his own international software engineer recruiting company, Outtalent.Since first encountering the AI doom argument at a Center for Applied Rationality bootcamp 10 years ago, he considers it a serious possibility, but he doesn’t currently feel convinced that doom is likely.Let’s explore Tilek’s worldview and pinpoint where he gets off the doom train and why!00:12 Tilek’s Background01:43 Life in Kyrgyzstan04:32 Tilek’s Non-Doomer Position07:12 Debating AI Doom Scenarios13:49 Nuclear Weapons and AI Analogies39:22 Privacy and Empathy in Human-AI Interaction39:43 AI's Potential in Understanding Human Emotions41:14 The Debate on AI's Empathy Capabilities42:23 Quantum Effects and AI's Predictive Models45:33 The Complexity of AI Control and Safety47:10 Optimization Power: AI vs. Human Intelligence48:39 The Risks of AI Self-Replication and Control51:52 Historical Analogies and AI Safety Concerns56:35 The Challenge of Embedding Safety in AI Goals01:02:42 The Future of AI: Control, Optimization, and Risks01:15:54 The Fragility of Security Systems01:16:56 Debating AI Optimization and Catastrophic Risks01:18:34 The Outcome Pump Thought Experiment01:19:46 Human Persuasion vs. AI Control01:21:37 The Crux of Disagreement: Robustness of AI Goals01:28:57 Slow vs. Fast AI Takeoff Scenarios01:38:54 The Importance of AI Alignment01:43:05 ConclusionFollow Tilekx.com/tilekLinksI referenced Paul Christiano’s scenario of gradual AI doom, a slower version that doesn’t require a Yudkowskian “foom”. Worth a read: What Failure Looks LikeI also referenced the concept of “edge instantiation” to explain that if you’re optimizing powerfully for some metric, you don’t get other intuitively nice things as a bonus, you *just* get the exact thing your function is measuring. Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

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