Preparing for my AI Doom Debate with Robin Hanson

This episode is a comprehensive preparation session for my upcoming debate on AI doom with the legendary Robin Hanson.Robin’s P(doom) is I’ve researched past debates, blogs, tweets, and scholarly discussions related to AI doom, and plan to focus our debate on the cruxes of disagreement between Robin’s position and my own Eliezer Yudkowsky-like position.Key topics include the probability of humanity’s extinction due to uncontrollable AGI, alignment strategies, AI capabilities and timelines, the impact of AI advancements, and various predictions made by Hanson.00:00 Introduction03:37 Opening Statement04:29 Value-Extinction Spectrum05:34 Future AI Capabilities08:23 AI Timelines13:23 What can't current AIs do15:48 Architecture/Algorithms vs. Content17:40 Cyc18:55 Is intelligence many different things, or one thing?19:31 Goal-Completeness20:44 AIXI22:10 Convergence in AI systems23:02 Foom26:00 Outside view: Extrapolating robust trends26:18 Salient Events Timeline30:56 Eliezer's claim about meta-levels affecting capability growth rates33:53 My claim - the optimization power model trumps these outside-view trends35:19 Aren't there many other possible outside views?37:03 Is alignment feasible?40:14 What's the warning shot that would make you concerned?41:07 Future Foom evidence?44:59 How else have Robin's views changed in the last decade?Doom Debates catalogues all the different stops where people get off the "doom train", all the different reasons people haven’t (yet) followed the train of logic to the conclusion that humanity is doomed.If you'd like the full Doom Debates experience, it's as easy as doing 4 separate things:1. Join my Substack — DoomDebates.com2. Search "Doom Debates" to subscribe in your podcast player3. Subscribe to YouTube videos — youtube.com/@doomdebates4. Follow me on Twitter — x.com/liron Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

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