Richard Hanania vs. Liron Shapira — AI Doom Debate

Richard Hanania is the President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology. His work has been praised by Vice President JD Vance, Tyler Cowen, and Bryan Caplan among others.In his influential newsletter, he’s written about why he finds AI doom arguments unconvincing. He was gracious enough to debate me on this topic. Let’s see if one of us can change the other’s P(Doom)!0:00 Intro1:53 Richard's politics2:24 The state of political discourse3:30 What's your P(Doom)?™6:38 How to stop the doom train8:27 Statement on AI risk9:31 Intellectual influences11:15 Base rates for AI doom15:43 Intelligence as optimization power31:26 AI capabilities progress53:46 Why isn't AI yet a top blogger?58:02 Diving into Richard's Doom Train58:47 Diminishing Returns on Intelligence1:06:36 Alignment will be relatively trivial1:15:14 Power-seeking must be programmed1:21:27 AI will simply be benevolent1:27:17 Superintelligent AI will negotiate with humans1:33:00 Super AIs will check and balance each other out1:36:54 We're mistaken about the nature of intelligence1:41:46 Summarizing Richard's AI doom position1:43:22 Jobpocalypse and gradual disempowerment1:49:46 Ad hominem attacks in AI discourseShow NotesSubscribe to Richard Hanania's Newsletter: https://richardhanania.comRichard's blogpost laying out where he gets off the AI "doom train": https://www.richardhanania.com/p/ai-doomerism-as-science-fictionRichard's interview with Steven Pinker: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/pinker-on-alignment-and-intelligenceRichard's interview with Robin Hanson: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/robin-hanson-says-youre-going-toMy Doom Debate with Robin Hanson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTQb6N3_zu8My reaction to Steven Pinker's AI doom position, and why his arguments are shallow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tIq6kbrF-4"The Betterness Explosion" by Robin Hanson: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the-betterness-explosionhtml---Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CUFbqh16FgPauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.infoJoin the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!---Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at https://DoomDebates.com and to https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

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