Robin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira: Is Near-Term Extinction From AGI Plausible?

Robin Hanson is a legend in the rationality community and one of my biggest intellectual influences.In 2008, he famously debated Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI doom via a sequence of dueling blog posts known as the great Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom Debate. This debate picks up where Hanson-Yudkowsky left off, revisiting key arguments in the light of recent AI advances.My position is similar to Eliezer's: P(doom) is on the order of 50%. Robin's position is shockingly different: P(doom) is below 1%.00:00 Announcements03:18 Debate Begins05:41 Discussing AI Timelines and Predictions19:54 Economic Growth and AI Impact31:40 Outside Views vs. Inside Views on AI46:22 Predicting Future Economic Growth51:10 Historical Doubling Times and Future Projections54:11 Human Brain Size and Economic Metrics57:20 The Next Era of Innovation01:07:41 AI and Future Predictions01:14:24 The Vulnerable World Hypothesis01:16:27 AI Foom01:28:15 Genetics and Human Brain Evolution01:29:24 The Role of Culture in Human Intelligence01:31:36 Brain Size and Intelligence Debate01:33:44 AI and Goal-Completeness01:35:10 AI Optimization and Economic Impact01:41:50 Feasibility of AI Alignment01:55:21 AI Liability and Regulation02:05:26 Final Thoughts and Wrap-UpRobin's links:Twitter: x.com/RobinHansonHome Page: hanson.gmu.eduRobin’s top related essays:* What Are Reasonable AI Fears?* AIs Will Be Our Mind ChildrenPauseAI links:https://pauseai.info/https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfACheck out https://youtube.com/@ForHumanityPodcast, the other podcast raising the alarm about AI extinction!For the full Doom Debates experience:* Subscribe to https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates* Subscribe to the Substack: https://DoomDebates.com* Search "Doom Debates" to subscribe in your podcast player* Follow me at https://x.com/liron Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

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