The Most Likely AI Doom Scenario — with Jim Babcock, LessWrong Team

What’s the most likely (“mainline”) AI doom scenario? How does the existence of LLMs update the original Yudkowskian version? I invited my friend Jim Babcock to help me answer these questions.Jim is a member of the LessWrong engineering team and its parent organization, Lightcone Infrastructure. I’ve been a longtime fan of his thoughtful takes.This turned out to be a VERY insightful and informative discussion, useful for clarifying my own predictions, and accessible to the show’s audience.00:00 Introducing Jim Babcock01:29 The Evolution of LessWrong Doom Scenarios02:22 LessWrong’s Mission05:49 The Rationalist Community and AI09:37 What’s Your P(Doom)™18:26 What Are Yudkowskians Surprised About?26:48 Moral Philosophy vs. Goal Alignment36:56 Sandboxing and AI Containment42:51 Holding Yudkowskians Accountable58:29 Understanding Next Word Prediction01:00:02 Pre-Training vs Post-Training01:08:06 The Rocket Alignment Problem Analogy01:30:09 FOOM vs. Gradual Disempowerment01:45:19 Recapping the Mainline Doom Scenario01:52:08 Liron’s OutroShow NotesJim’s LessWrong — https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jimrandomhJim’s Twitter — https://x.com/jimrandomhThe Rocket Alignment Problem by Eliezer Yudkowsky — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gg9a4y8reWKtLe3Tn/the-rocket-alignment-problemOptimality is the Tiger and Agents Are Its Teeth — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpPnReyBC54KESiSn/optimality-is-the-tiger-and-agents-are-its-teethDoom Debates episode about the research paper discovering AI's utility function — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/cais-researchers-discover-ais-preferencesCome to the Less Online conference on May 30 - Jun 1, 2025: https://less.onlineWatch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligencePauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.infoJoin the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at https://doomdebates.com and to https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

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