Dwarkesh Podcast
Dylan Patel & Jon (Asianometry) – How the Semiconductor Industry Actually Works
02 Oct 2024
A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade.Dylan Patel runs Semianalysis, the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware. Jon Y runs Asianometry, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history.* What Xi would do if he became scaling pilled* $ 1T+ in datacenter buildout by end of decadeWatch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Sponsors:* Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for FPGA programmers, CUDA programmers, and ML researchers. To learn more about their full time roles, internship, tech podcast, and upcoming Kaggle competition, go here.* This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page.Timestamps00:00:00 – Xi's path to AGI00:04:20 – Liang Mong Song00:08:25 – How semiconductors get better00:11:16 – China can centralize compute00:18:50 – Export controls & sanctions00:32:51 – Huawei's intense culture00:38:51 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified00:40:58 – N2 should not exist00:45:53 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical00:49:21 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors00:59:13 – Chip architecture design01:04:36 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US01:10:12 – Being head of compute at an AI lab01:16:24 – Scaling costs and power demand01:37:05 – Are we financing an AI bubble?01:50:20 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis02:06:10 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Full Episode
Today, I'm chatting with Dylan Patel, who runs Semi Analysis, and John, who runs the Asianometry YouTube channel. Does he have a last name? No, I do not.
No, I'm just kidding. I'm John Y. That's right, is it? I'm John Y. Wait, why is it only one letter?
Because Y is the best letter.
Why is your face covered?
Why not? No, seriously, why is it covered?
Because I'm afraid of looking at myself get older and fatter over the years. But seriously, it's like anonymity, right? Anonymity. Okay. Yeah. By the way, so you know what Dylan's middle name is? Actually, no.
He told me.
What's my father's name?
I'm not going to say, but I remember. You can say it. It's fine. Sanjay? Yes. What's his middle name?
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