Earthly Machine Learning

On Some Limitations of Current Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

27 Jun 2025

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🧠 Abstract:Machine Learning (ML) is increasingly influential in weather and climate prediction. Recent advances have led to fully data-driven ML models that often claim to outperform traditional physics-based systems. This episode evaluates forecasts from three leading ML models—Pangu-Weather, FourCastNet, and GraphCast—focusing on their accuracy and physical realism.📌 Bullet points summary:ML models like Pangu-Weather, FourCastNet, and GraphCast fail to capture sub-synoptic and mesoscale phenomena with adequate fidelity, producing forecasts that become overly smooth over time.Their energy spectra diverge significantly from traditional models and reanalysis data, leading to poor representation of features below 300–400 km scales.They lack accurate representation of key physical balances in the atmosphere, such as geostrophic wind balance and the divergent-rotational wind ratio, affecting the realism of weather diagnostics.Though computationally efficient and strong in certain metrics, these models should be seen as forecast refiners rather than full-fledged atmospheric simulators or "digital twins," as they still rely heavily on traditional models for training and input.💡 The Big Idea:While ML models mark a significant advancement, their current limitations highlight the indispensable role of physical principles and traditional modeling in weather prediction.📖 Citation:Bonavita, Massimo. "On some limitations of current machine learning weather prediction models." Geophysical Research Letters 51.12 (2024): e2023GL107377. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107377

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3ª PARTE | 17 DIC 2025 | EL PARTIDAZO DE COPE

01 Jan 1970

El Partidazo de COPE

13:00H | 21 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

01 Jan 1970

Fin de Semana

12:00H | 21 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

01 Jan 1970

Fin de Semana

10:00H | 21 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

01 Jan 1970

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13:00H | 20 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

01 Jan 1970

Fin de Semana

12:00H | 20 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

01 Jan 1970

Fin de Semana

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Earthly Machine Learning

On Some Limitations of Current Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

This episode hasn't been transcribed yet

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3ª PARTE | 17 DIC 2025 | EL PARTIDAZO DE COPE

13:00H | 21 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

12:00H | 21 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

10:00H | 21 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

13:00H | 20 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

12:00H | 20 DIC 2025 | Fin de Semana

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