Eye On The Market

The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review

02 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here

The winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat

05 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmente...

Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks

16 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, i...

The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack

24 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of ...

Fair Shakes

02 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census an...

Summer mailbag

29 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag. View video here

Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market

09 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past. Explore our insights

"OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups

03 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market fu...

Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill

27 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn. View video here

Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming

13 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language mo...

Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker

01 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment,...

Redacted

02 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, ...

Fifty Days of Grey

12 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied;...

Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear

04 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs ar...

From Here to Eternity

13 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of c...

Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders

21 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-lov...

Eye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists

01 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wro...

The Year of Living Dangerously

10 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations...

"Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story

06 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashin...

The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

17 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run. Click here to read the full PDF and view...

Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election

30 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package The US is about to conduct its most polarized President...

A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market

03 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital s...

There’s no place like home

27 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Go...

The Lion in Winter

23 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, sm...

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State

09 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reaga...

A Piece of the Action

06 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team val...

Animal Farm

15 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricu...

Cicadian Rhythms

24 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag resp...

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

02 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video here

Electravision

05 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, t...

Five Easy Pieces

08 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in ...

Medical Complications

23 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an ex...

Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises

17 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video here

Outlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats Dominoes

10 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video here

Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook Overview

01 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes ...

It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review

05 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit ...

Not That 70’s Show

14 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript View video here

New York, Just Like I Pictured It

16 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-ho...

What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

26 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews t...

The Rasputin Effect

02 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Global resilience to higher rates View transcript View video and charts here

Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride

18 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs View transcript with chart references

Letters to the Editor

14 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, F...

Too Long at the Fair

23 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart references

The Places We Could Go

25 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown lat...

Frankenstein’s Monster

10 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional ba...

Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence

28 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.  This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment...

Winter Heating

21 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early app...

American Gothic

24 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it View transcript with the chart references

The End of the Affair

02 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins View transcript with chart references     

Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

01 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

02 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP b...

Reruns

19 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and t...

Arrested Development

26 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with cr...

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

06 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market...

Independence Days

27 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue...

The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen

15 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one

The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating

26 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating...

Bear Market Barometers

17 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but t...

The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles

11 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline supe...

The Elephants in the Room

11 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on in...

Surveying the Damage

22 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price s...

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

07 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and o...

Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors

04 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kath...

Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine

15 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers

Middle Ages

06 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.

The Thing

15 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

Help Wanted

20 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

“Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining bus...

Dude, Where’s My Stuff

27 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraord...

Spaccine hesitancy

19 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity.  An update on our SPA...

Red Med Redemption

26 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

 Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth

Thy Brother’s Keeper

13 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how...

Food Fight: 2021 Private Equity Update

28 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfol...

Future Shock

05 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar powe...

Absolute Value

14 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID her...

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

15 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels th...

Very short stories

18 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power o...

Hydraulic Spacking

08 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

In this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large...

Fear of Flying

19 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

Outlook 2021: The Hazmat Recovery

01 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Michael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t s...

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

14 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B Hayes, Richard III, Bob ...

The Armageddonists, Revisited

18 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains...

Quiet Flows the Don

09 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election...

Buckle Up

13 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equ...

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

30 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

The Needle and the Damage Done

04 Sep 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Foun...

COVID Research: Charts of the Week (August 17)

17 Aug 2020

Contributed by Lukas

US virus decline plateaus; UK is a long way from herd immunity; A post-COVID US housing shift to less dense locations with cheaper land; Lost in Trans...

COVID Research: Charts of the Week

29 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalizat...

Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap

07 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy pa...

Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper

29 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more...

Zoom Room

26 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, ...

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

11 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoc...

Covid-19 Update

17 Apr 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, ...

Man vs Nature

29 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consu...

COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets

23 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing ...

Berning Man

05 Mar 2020

Contributed by Lukas

An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with...

Millions and Trillions

06 Feb 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student ...

Rotten Tomatoes

17 Jan 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

Ghosts of Christmas Past

31 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.

War of the Worlds

04 Dec 2019

Contributed by Lukas

In this special holiday edition, Michael explains how an evening at home went awry: how a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart wa...

The Armageddonists!

08 Nov 2019

Contributed by Lukas

The Armageddonists and the price of fame.