BHP surges as CBA collapses; Chalmers defends budget; Nazi stolen art reclaimed
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Welcome to Fear and Greed, business news you can use. Today, copper prices rally, pushing BHP to a new record share price, and Commonwealth Bank tumbles 10% after a lacklustre earnings result. The federal government defends Tuesday night's budget following a flood of criticism over capital gains tax and negative gearing changes. And the economic downturn is helping Australia's biggest gaming manufacturer. Plus, wages growth slows and a painting stolen by the Nazis from a Jewish art collector is discovered hanging in a suburban home. It is Thursday the 14th of May 2026. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.
Oh, he says it with Ed, and even welcome back. Michael, welcome back to the show.
What factors contributed to BHP's surge in market value?
How was the US, California, Vegas, San Diego, et cetera?
Oh, it was fantastic. It is just a – there is so much to do, and especially with young kids going to Disneyland, going to all of those places, it is just – Such a fantastic time. And there's plenty that I'll be telling you. I'll be telling you about my Zooks. I want to see videos. Autonomous taxi experience.
How did the federal budget changes impact capital gains tax and negative gearing?
It was great fun. Anyway, there is a lot to tell you. And big thank you to Juliet and to Nadine from Ausbiz who filled in while I was away. They did a great job. Almost too good a job, I will say. Anyway, so I hurried back. I've come back early just to get back on with you now, Sean. Anyway, let's get into it. The main story this morning, Sean, the growing disparity in market capitalisation between BHP and Commonwealth Bank has accelerated following Tuesday night's budget, with some analysts now forecasting the end of the 30-year housing cycle. Changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing. make the housing and banking sectors less attractive to invest in, and that has implications then for other asset classes like shares and bonds.
The shift in sentiment was reflected well and truly in the big bank share prices yesterday. All of them were lower, led by the country's biggest housing lender, Commonwealth Bank.
So the argument goes that favourable tax treatment of housing has put the sector into a super cycle that's lasted about three decades. But the new rules dampen property related tax concessions that will cull investment demand and could also result in... in a decline in listing activity as investors hold onto properties to protect grandfathered benefits. Now, Treasury estimates that the tax changes would result in house prices growing by 2% less than they otherwise would have over a couple of years. But some market analysts reckon the falls could be much steeper. For example, Goldman Sachs' Andrew Boak, his forecast house price growth would fall 5% over the next 12 months. More broadly, analysts say the budget changes have the potential to harm the housing sector.
But the flip side, if you're not investing in housing, not investing in banks, you might be investing in equities or fixed income markets. So it's kind of what takes away from one could well give to another.
Now, all of this is happening, Sean, as the price of copper rallies to an all-time high, pushing beyond US$14,000 a tonne. And that helped BHP hit another record yesterday. BHP is now 20% larger than Commonwealth Bank. This surge in copper prices reflects really a bunch of factors. That's the technical term, a bunch of factors here. Surging demand from data centre builds are A rebound in demand from China. Supply disruptions because, of course, of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
And also high input prices. I've got to ask you, I'm surprised you go away for 10 days and all of a sudden BHP's $50, $60 billion worth more than Commonwealth Bank. Yeah. What did I miss? I chose a heck of a time to go away, didn't I? You sure did. Yeah, I'd just like to point out you went away when the federal budget was on when the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates. Not that I'm upset about that.
Yeah, I should have checked the calendar before I booked it. But anyway, there you go. Sorry.
I should have checked the calendar before you booked it. Coffa is considered the bellwether industrial metal.
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