Q+A: What keeps the chair of APRA awake at night?

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FEAR & GREED | Business News 13 min 1 speaker 6 chapters transcribed 3 hours ago
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What are the biggest “polycrisis” risks APRA worries could hit the financial system at once?

Sean Aylmer 0:05
Welcome to Fear and Greed Q&A, where we ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics, and more. I'm Sean Aylmer. Australia's financial system is enormous. APRA, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, supervises banks, insurers, and super funds holding more than $10 trillion. on behalf of Australians. And the risks facing that system are changing quickly. Cyber attacks are becoming more sophisticated. Artificial intelligence is creating new opportunities and new vulnerabilities. And geopolitical tensions are rising, adding to economic uncertainty. APRA has just released its 2026-27 corporate plan, setting out how the regulator intends to respond. John Lonsdale is the chair of APRA.
Sean Aylmer 0:48
John, welcome to Fear and Greed Q&A. Sean, it's great to be with you. How many $10 trillion are you looking after, John? Do you sleep well at night?
John Lonsdale 0:56
I mean, that's a big gig. Well, there's a lot to worry about in APRA and our core business is looking at the risks. So there's a set of risks that you know of and you try to mitigate. But there's another set, which is the unknown set, which is something that you always worry about. Have we got that covered? Have we asked enough questions yet? And I think the big thing that you always worry about in APRA is what if some of these risks manifest at the same time? And, you know, this idea of can you imagine a world where you have a cyber event at the same time as you've got a geopolitical crisis, at the same time as you've got a slowing in the economic climate? So what does all that mean for the financial system?
John Lonsdale 1:47
So we worry about all of that.
Sean Aylmer 1:49
And we'll get to some of those specifically in a moment. But broadly, as you look at the financial system today and in next year, in the following year, et cetera, what is it that you are most worried about? Is it the fact that you can have a bunch of seemingly unrelated events happening at the same time? Or is it cyber? Is it AI?

How is APRA preparing for a combined cyber, AI and geopolitical stress scenario?

John Lonsdale 2:10
Well, I think it's all of that. But the horror scenario, I think, Sean, would be if you have a crystallisation of multiple risks at the same time, what we call a polycrisis. And that's why we're spending a lot of time, as we set out in the corporate plan, looking at the links in the Australian financial system. We've done a platform piece of work on the cross-industry stress test. If there was a stress in the banking system, how would that feed through into superannuation and vice versa? We're spending a lot of time on crisis preparation. We're asking banks, insurers and super funds to think about possible scenarios. We're asking them to do desktop scenarios, do some drills and make sure they've got a plan when something goes wrong so that money can continue to flow, customers can continue to
John Lonsdale 3:06
to have the services that they're accustomed to. On geopolitical risk, we've put out a set of expectations. We've not done that before, Sean, but we're trying to make it very clear that there's a minimum here that banks, insurers and super funds need to hit. And cyber and AI, a big set of topic to make sure that on crisis preparedness, we're as good as we can be.
Sean Aylmer 3:31
So let's go into AI. And we've had in recent days, the leaders of ex-anthropic open AI coming out and saying, we need to slow things down a bit here because AI is getting so good that there is a real risk to, I mean, well, the worst case was a person who said humanity. Let's bring it back from that. But certainly system security and financial system security. How do you think about that?
John Lonsdale 3:58
Well, it's a big topic for us right now. It's a live topic for us. So we know the banks, the super funds and insurers that we regulate are using AI. And that's a good thing for productivity. It's a good thing for customers and the products that might be developed. But that needs to be accompanied with the appropriate governance and controls. So we're not about getting in the way of the technology. We're about saying to our organisations that we regulate, have you got the right governance and controls in place, particularly with the speed with which some of these risks can manifest?

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