What AI Will Actually Do to the Economy with Noah Smith
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What does the “meteor meme” say about AI versus the economy?
Have you ever seen a meme where a dinosaur is standing there and sees a giant meteor go overhead and says, Oh shit, the economy.
Sounds interesting. No, I haven't seen that one. No, I haven't.
That's where we are with AI. That's where we are with AI. It's it's oh shit, the economy, right? Because the problem with AI are number one, AI enabled bioterror that kills the human race is scary. But also creating a superintelligence that's that's far beyond us, and I would argue we already have done that. We're no longer the masters of this planet, right? Like we're the masters of this planet still for like a couple years because of our greater intentionality. But as long as we, you know, like write a sufficiently long while loop that makes AI run for long enough, whatever. And as long as robotics are good enough so that AI won't like die the minute humans die, it could just kill us if it wants. And so was that smart?
So see your point with the with the meteor thing is it's a meteor, we should worry about the meteor, not the economy. Yes. Hey everyone, welcome to the Founders in Arms podcast with me, Imad Akkand, co-founder and CEO of Mercury. And I'm Raj Suri,
co-founder of Lima and Tribe. And today we're very excited to welcome back to the show Noah Smith, uh infamous economist. Welcome back, Noah. Infamous. Well thanks. I don't know if I like the sound of that on. How do you describe yourself, a writer or economist? Well, just a writer. I mean
Righter, yeah. I think for people who don't know, uh Noah writes No Opinions, uh a really good sub stack. I'm a huge fan of it. I haven't been keeping up with your content as much, Noah, since you've stopped doing your other podcast. Uh uh you've stopped doing economics one oh two or you're still doing that. Yes,
I've stopped doing it because uh Eric, my co host, did not have time with his new job. But I'm planning things for more content. You'll get more stuff from me shortly.
What arguments did the viral Citrini “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” post make?
Yeah. I always loved those. Uh gave us a refresh, but you're still blogging. Uh I I was just catching up with your blog. Uh you've written some stories about kinda this AI citrina citrini moment. Uh yeah. Yeah, I I've been like really busy because my kids got sick so I was I didn't even keep up with that moment. So Raj, maybe you could describe like what happened with the Citrini post and the effect and then we can get Noah's take on
Yeah, I thought Noah would be a great guest for us this week because there's a lot of talk right now on how AI is gonna disrupt the entire economy. Uh and uh not j the entire economy and like every individual business. And it feels like Wall Street has just kind of like for the first time realized like AI is getting good. Um and like that's seemed to have a massive effect on on tech stocks in particular, but also other other stock areas. And I I kind of see this as a growing trend because Imad, you and I on this podcast have been talking about the potential effect of AI on like jobs and the economy and businesses for a long time on the show. But it feels like the world is just like figuring this out.
And I think I Imad, you told me one thing one time. You went to DC and like you talked a lot about AI to like some people there. And people were like so dismissive.
Yeah, they were definitely not I mean, sure some of them are, but like the ones I talked to were not bothered about like job loss at all, which seemed like the most obvious thing that politicians should care about with AI. But uh well, what did the Citrini Post say?
So to summarize, I'll I'll do a quick summary uh on the Citrini post. Basically it it's a well I thought it was a well written post, uh like talking like we're in twenty twenty eight and we're looking back and here's where we are today. You know, uh here's what a here's the destruction AI has wrought today. And uh it you know, it kind of paints like this interesting scenario of like, you know, uh of um of a very bearish sort of uh you know, impact. That AI had on individual businesses and they named several individual businesses, which we'll can talk about, individual industries, um, and the entire economy.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What does the “meteor meme” say about AI versus the economy?
0:00–2:00
2
What arguments did the viral Citrini “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” post make?
2:00–4:42
3
Why did markets miss COVID‑19 and what does that tell us about AI’s market impact?
4:42–9:11
4
How did the Citrini post link AI to a potential 2008‑style financial crisis?
9:11–11:44
5
What does Block’s 4,000‑person layoff reveal about AI‑driven unemployment?
11:44–18:13
6
How can a productivity boom create a mild recession through “sticky prices”?
18:13–20:20
7
Why is AI‑enabled bioterrorism Noah’s biggest fear, not economic disruption?
20:20–28:45
8
What are Noah’s views on current inflation, deflation, GDP growth and intellectual humility?
28:45–41:57
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from Founders in Arms
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