A veteran diplomat breaks down the Iran war
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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This is Fresh Air. I'm Dave Davies. The six-week war between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran entered a new and uncertain phase over the weekend when President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose a naval blockade on Iran's ports in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Thank you very much. That led to a hastily arranged two-week ceasefire that is mostly held between the U.S. and Iran and an agreement to hold negotiations. However, Israel, the United States' ally in the war, has continued to attack targets in Lebanon in its campaign against the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah. Iran claimed that that violated the ceasefire, while both the U.S. and Israel said it was not part of the deal.
For some insight into the conflict and thoughts on what to expect next, we turn to veteran diplomat Aaron David Miller. Miller spent 25 years in the State Department advising Republican and Democratic presidents on Middle East policy and playing a key role in the Oslo peace process in the 1990s. He received the State Department's Distinguished Superior and Meritorious Honor Awards. He's now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the author of five books. We recorded our interview yesterday. Aaron David Miller, welcome back to Fresh Air. David, it's great to be here. I love the program. Good, good. Well, let's get into this. Maybe we should begin by how we got here. You know, when President Trump announced last week that there was an agreement for a two-week ceasefire and then face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan –
Anybody who'd read the public statements by Trump and the Iranian authorities could see that they were just miles apart.
What recent developments have escalated tensions between the U.S. and Iran?
Was this breakdown after one day about what you expected?
It was. I think to have a successful negotiation, Dave, you really need three elements, three keys. You need two parties who are willing and able and are prepared to use diplomacy, not to browbeat or to issue demands for each side, but to actually create some sort of balance of interest. Number two, you need a shared sense of urgency. Let's say the Iranian clock and the American clock need to be in sync. Both need to feel a certain amount of pain on one hand and through negotiations could realize a certain amount of gain on the other. And finally, you need an end product, right? Some agreement, some deal, text. I think it was the great Hollywood mogul who said that an oral agreement isn't worth the paper it's written on.
So you need these three things. And frankly, you didn't have them and run up to Islamabad and you don't have them now.
Yeah, when Trump announced the ceasefire, there was no written agreement laying out the terms of the ceasefire. Is that unusual?
Yes, and I guess no. You know, the U.S.-Iranian negotiations are really quite unique, idiosyncratic in this regard. You can't do this stuff on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do it on a cell phone. You can't do it however well-intentioned the Pakistanis may be. And they have clear interests. Eighty-plus percent of Pakistan's oil comes from Iran. Not to mention food imports and a variety of other commodities. You need to do direct negotiations. I know 21 hours might seem like a long time. I remember Camp David in 2000. Ehud Barak, Bill Clinton, and Yasser Arafat. I mean, we spent 12 hours on one issue alone. And frankly, the issues are so complicated that you need direct negotiations. Mediators can facilitate, but they can't serve to actually negotiate on behalf of the party.
So no, I wasn't surprised, nor was I surprised that the terms of this ceasefire were not understood by each side to be quite the same.
Right.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:31
2
What recent developments have escalated tensions between the U.S. and Iran?
2:31–5:19
3
How did the ceasefire agreement come about and what were its terms?
5:19–11:45
4
What are the three key elements for successful negotiations according to Aaron David Miller?
11:45–16:08
5
Why was the lack of a written agreement considered unusual in U.S.-Iran negotiations?
16:08–44:45
Speakers
4 identifiedMore from Fresh Air
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