Is the U.S. headed toward military conflict with Iran?

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Terry Gross 0:00
Over the years at NPR's Fresh Air, we've gotten to talk with a lot of great filmmakers. Now we've made a playlist of some of our favorites, including Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg, Ava DuVernay, Mel Brooks, Spike Lee, Werner Herzog, and others. Find all our new playlists and more at Fresh Air Plus at plus.npr.org slash freshair. This is Fresh Air. I'm Terry Gross. President Trump has said he'll use military force against Iran unless its government agrees to U.S. demands that Tehran shut down its nuclear program and pledges to never again pursue creating a nuclear weapon. As I record this this morning, negotiations are underway in Geneva between Iran's foreign minister and Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, along with Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who doesn't have an official position within the current administration.
Terry Gross 0:56
Are we headed toward a military conflict with Iran? If so, would it be a limited series of airstrikes on select targets? Would the U.S. attempt regime change, resulting in a larger war? My guest David Sanger can't answer those questions, but he can tell us how we got to this precipice and what the consequences might be for the U.S. if the president does use military force. Sanger is a White House and national security correspondent for The New York Times. For years, his coverage has included Iran's nuclear program and U.S. and Israeli attempts to sabotage it. He's also the author of the book New Cold Wars. Although I'm recording this introduction this morning, we recorded our interview yesterday morning.
Terry Gross 1:43
We started with a clip of what President Trump said about Iran during his State of the Union address Tuesday.
Donald Trump 1:50
They've already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they're working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America. After Midnight Hammer, they were warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons program, and in particular, nuclear weapons. Yet they continue starting it all over. We wiped it out, and they want to start all over again. and are at this moment, again, pursuing their sinister ambitions.

What is the current state of Iran's nuclear weapons program?

Donald Trump 2:23
We are in negotiations with them. They want to make a deal, but we haven't heard those secret words. We will never have a nuclear weapon. My preference...
Donald Trump 2:50
My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain. I will never allow the world's number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon. Can't let that happen.
Terry Gross 3:06
David Sanger, welcome to Fresh Air. So... I'm sure you were waiting to hear more about Iran. So first of all, were you surprised at how buried it was within the speech and how little he had to say about it, considering we might be on the brink of war with Iran? And then tell us what you made of what he did say.
David Sanger 3:27
Well, Terry, wonderful to be back on with you. I was a little surprised. I had thought that he was going to set some kind of deadline for the Iranians because the backdrop to the speech, of course, was that he has engaged in one of the largest examples of gunboat diplomacy that we've seen in some time. He's put a huge force of two carrier groups, other ships, fighter aircraft, bombers, refuelers, all within reach of Iran. It's the largest buildup of American military forces that we have seen since the run-up to the Iraq War in 2003. So it's a huge military pressure campaign. And I thought he would refer more explicitly to that. He didn't. Instead, what he did was kind of run together a couple of different facts and a few fantasies about the Iranian program.
David Sanger 4:29
First of all, the problem with the Iranian nuclear program is not that the Iranians haven't said they'll never build a nuclear weapon. They say that every week. They've been saying that for years. The foreign minister of Iran tweeted it out again just before the president spoke.
Terry Gross 4:47
Of course, that doesn't mean you can believe them on it.
David Sanger 4:50
No, you can't, Terry. And of course, the problem is not what they say. It is the evidence that has been gathered patiently over 20 years about work they did on weaponization, the conversion of nuclear material into actual weapons that could only be explained by either an active or a once active nuclear weapons program.

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