Mike Osterholm & Eric Topol - Discuss “The Big One” book

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Ground Truths 36 min 2 speakers 5 chapters transcribed

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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Eric Topol 0:00

Okay, well, I am really excited today. I get to talk to my favorite epidemiologist. And he has just launched a big book called The Big One. And it is an incredible book that I had a chance to review prior to its launch. And I just want to read what I said about it. And I'm a little guy compared to the other people that have reviewed the book.

What is the main topic of 'The Big One' book?

Eric Topol 0:24

I wrote, if it was one person to turn... For future pandemic readiness, it would be Michael Oster, one of the world's leading epidemiologists. In The Big One, a landmark book, he, along with Mark Olshaker, provide a remarkably clear-eyed, science-driven, and comprehensive preventive approach. So, Michael, welcome.

Mike Osterholm 0:48

Thank you very much, Eric. It's a real honor to be with you.

Eric Topol 0:51

Well, no, it's much more for me because this book is really the timing of it and the balance in it and the insight and wisdom from a person who's been doing it, what, for a decade and is the highest, as far as I know, the highest regarded person. American epidemiologists. That's all I can say.

Mike Osterholm 1:11

Well, if I can add one addendum to this, okay, because it's in the book, so I surely don't want to disguise it. But what the audience may not realize is that you, along with several other colleagues and I, got together every Friday throughout the pandemic, what we call the party planning group to cover in our our calendars. And what I learned from you during the pandemic, I felt like I could almost have gotten another PhD or, you know, at least another master's. And I just want to personally thank you. Your clarity of voice, your brilliant, brilliant assessment of what, you know, the various clinical and epidemiologic issues mean. has been just a gift. And so when you started this Substack, obviously, as you know, I couldn't wait to subscribe.

Mike Osterholm 1:57

And I hope everyone who's listening today realizes just what a valuable tool you are to those of us.

How did the pandemic influence the writing of this book?

Mike Osterholm 2:03

So it's an honor, a real honor for me to be here with you.

Eric Topol 2:07

You're really kind, Michael. And You've been such a great support, and I've learned so much from you. And one of the things I learned from you, and it's throughout the book, is the importance of humility. Not only are you my favorite person for coming up with metaphors, you come up with country bumpkin metaphors, but you're really good at... having humility, saying, we don't know. I don't know. We don't know. So let's get into something we don't know about, which is the last chapter of the book. We're going in reverse here. But the last chapter of the book is the big one. It's SARS-3. And it's about a virus that gets wings. and circles around the world in hours, I guess starting in Somalia and then getting into your neck of the woods in Minneapolis.

Eric Topol 2:58

And it's obviously something that you imagined, but it's maybe not so far off from what could happen. So take us through the SARS-3 scenario that you envisioned.

Mike Osterholm 3:13

Well, first of all, what we attempted to do with this book is provide basically a fictional outbreak that begins in the first chapter with the very first transmission in Somalia. And it points out just how quickly this virus would spread. And it's very realistic. I mean, we... Checked every figure with everyone in Somalia, Kenya, airports. And what we try to do then is based on that, each chapter begins with that fictional scenario. And then we go into the nonfiction actual assessment of what should we or could we have learned. And as you know, we've learned a heck of a lot during this pandemic. One of the things that was very challenging is that we never spent the time afterwards, either commitment-wise or just from a time standpoint, to assess what the heck happened.

Mike Osterholm 4:03

What did we go through? We needed a 9-11-like commission without finger-pointing, not partisan, just to say what are the lessons we could have and should have learned. And so, you know, we came up with this virus. You know, at the time that we saw COVID take off, there were a lot of people skeptical that a coronavirus was going to do this. As we know, SARS and MERS were both two prototype coronaviruses that, in fact, were of great concern.