Coronavirus — how bad is it and how do we stop it?

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Health Report 29 min 4 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 3 days ago

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What is the timeline of the coronavirus outbreak from its first detection to the global alert?

Unknown 0:02

This is an ABC Podcast.

Dr. Norman Swan 0:06

Hello, Norman Swan here with this week's health report, and it's devoted to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus starting in the Hubei province of China and is now spreading globally. Already there's misinformation, disagreement among the experts about infectivity, racism associated with fear of the unknown, Who knows how many hundreds of thousands of people wearing face masks, almost certainly uselessly, and unproven treatments being tried out. Late last week we asked for your questions and we got a strong response. Your questions ranged from wanting to know more about the origins, the real risks, whether there's a story that's being kept from us to whether control measures will actually work. So today we'll try to give you some answers, plus background, what's known to date, whether there are already drugs which might help, and the technology that might lead to an early vaccine.

Dr. Norman Swan 0:54

First, though, here's James Bullen with a chronology.

James Bullen 0:59

Yeah. The first cases of a pneumonia of unknown cause, what we've come to know as novel Coronavirus 2019, were detected in the city of Wuhan, in central China, about the 8th of December last year. It's certainly possible, as some infectious disease experts have pointed out, that the virus was circulating before that date and just hadn't been picked up. Workers at a food market, which also sold live animals, were among the first identified cases. That's given rise to the idea the virus may have jumped from an animal at the market to humans. According to the New York Times, local Chinese authorities silenced a doctor who tried to raise the alarm about the mysterious illness, and downplayed the risk as early cases appeared.

James Bullen 1:40

It wasn't until the end of December that China's authorities notified the World Health Organization of the situation. At that time, there were forty four confirmed cases.

Unknown 1:49

Following up on investigations into a viral pneumonia outbreak in central China, authorities in Wuhan have ordered a local seafood market with apparent connections to the outbreak to shut down.

James Bullen 2:01

That's January first. On January 9th, there's the first reported death from coronavirus, a 61-year-old man from Wuhan. And on January thirteenth, the first confirmed case of coronavirus is reported outside China in Thailand.

Unknown 2:16

Travel restrictions have been imposed in Wuhan and other cities across China at the center of a viral outbreak that's killed eighteen people.

James Bullen 2:25

Wuhan is put into lockdown on the 24th of January as the number of people infected escalates. Less than a month after the original reports to the WHO, there are more than a thousand official cases. And new modeling reported in the Lancet over the weekend suggests the actual number of cases at that time may have been far higher, as many as 75,000 in Wuhan alone. That same paper suggests the number of people with coronavirus. coronavirus is doubling every week.

Unknown 2:53

The first Australian case of coronavirus has been confirmed, with a man being held under isolation in a Melbourne hospital in a stable condition.

James Bullen 3:02

Is announced January 25th. At this point, we're at 2,000 cases worldwide. And more cases have since been found in Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria.

How did early case definitions and reporting affect our understanding of the virus’s spread?

James Bullen 3:12

Last Friday, the World Health Organization's Director General Tedros Adenom Gebriasis declared the coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. Official global numbers had nudged 11,000.

Unknown 3:27

declaration is not because of what is happening in China, but because of what is happening in other countries. Our greatest concern Із ді потенціал. For the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems and which

James Bullen 3:47

are ill prepared to deal with it. Today the first death from coronavirus outside of China was reported. A forty four year old Chinese man who had travelled from Wuhan to the Philippines.

Dr. Norman Swan 4:00

James Bullen. And as we go to air, there are more than seventeen thousand confirmed cases of coronavirus and more than three hundred and fifty deaths. The Department of Health's last coronavirus update says there are now twelve confirmed p cases here, four in New South Wales, four in Victoria, two in South Australia, and two in Queensland.