Coronavirus: UK cancer deaths to rise in pandemic trade-off, getting more accurate infection rates with random testing, how personality shapes pandemic behaviour, and DIY masks put to the test

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Health Report 28 min 2 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 3 days ago

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What is the overall focus of today’s health report episode?

Unknown 0:02

This is an ABC Podcast.

Dr. Norman Swan 0:06

Hello and welcome to this week's health report with me, Norman Swan. Today the cancer impact of COVID nineteen here and in the UK. Masks are put to the test. How might your cloth mask perform to interrupt those COVID aerosols? And is toilet paper holding a reflection of your personality?

Demaris Ashwandon 0:22

Neurotic people reported more concerns and were more pessimistic about the duration estimate. Conscientious people undertook more precautions, and people who were more extroverted bought more toilet paper.

Dr. Norman Swan 0:37

So you you always knew it, extroverts in aisle three. That's personality trays and COVID nineteen behavior later in the show. As you hear the daily reports of increasing numbers of people infected with the COVID-19 virus in Victoria, worrying as they are, how would you react if you knew there were several times as many infections as being detected? Say 2,000 rather than 500. The missing numbers are called undocumented cases and are people with no symptoms or mild ones who don't come forward. Knowing the true numbers of COVID cases also gives a more accurate idea of what's called The US state of Indiana decided to find out the real number. This morning I spoke to Tunir Manakemi, who is professor of health policy and management at Indiana and Purdue University in Indianapolis.

Tunir Manakemi 1:28

We were trying to estimate the prevalence of current and previous infections with the SARS CoV two virus in Indiana.

Dr. Norman Swan 1:38

How's the covet pandemic been going in in Indiana, Iana before we get to your results?

Tunir Manakemi 1:43

We started off relatively well and in the last couple of weeks it looks like we're getting ourselves into a little bit more trouble, but nothing alarming yet.

Dr. Norman Swan 1:53

What did you do in this survey?

Tunir Manakemi 1:55

We did a random sample of Indiana residents and tested them both for active viral infection and the presence of antibodies for the virus.

Dr. Norman Swan 2:05

So you went in and did nose and throat swabs and took blood?

Tunir Manakemi 2:08

So we did, yeah, nasal pharyngeal swabs and drew blood. We ended up randomly sampling almost four thousand individuals. And what did

Dr. Norman Swan 2:17

you find?

Tunir Manakemi 2:18

Well, so at the end of April we found that about two point seven nine percent of the Indiana population was either currently or previously infected, so that we knew how many people were infected up until that point.

Dr. Norman Swan 2:32

And how did that compare to the known number of cases from the testing regime that you had in place for people who might be symptomatic and coming forward?

Tunir Manakemi 2:39

We ended up estimating about a hundred and eighty seven thousand people were infected, which was about eleven times greater than the number of known cases at the time.

Dr. Norman Swan 2:49

Did you ask these people go back and ask them whether they'd had symptoms?

Tunir Manakemi 2:53

Yeah. And we found that of those that were currently infected, forty four percent said they were experiencing none of the symptoms on the list.

Dr. Norman Swan 3:02

Which is remarkably close to what I think they found on the Diamond Princess on one of the cruise ships.

Tunir Manakemi 3:07

That is true.

Dr. Norman Swan 3:08

Were you surprised that it was eleven times?

Tunir Manakemi 3:11

We weren't surprised as much as we were curious. We knew that cases were obviously underestimating infections. We had real no way of knowing exactly by how much.

Dr. Norman Swan 3:21

Before we get to the fatality rate, what are the implications of it being eleven times? I mean, have you got any sense of the contribution to the infection rate? You mentioned earlier that Indiana's beginning to lose the plot as far as COVID nineteen infections are concerned. Do you think it's coming from this undocumented group?

How did Indiana’s random‑testing study reveal the true prevalence of COVID‑19?

Tunir Manakemi 3:40

You know, I I almost like to conceptualize everyone who's potentially infected on a pyramid, where at the top of the pyramid you have deaths. That's the smallest proportion. Underneath that, you have hospitalizations. Underneath that, you have symptomatic people who seek care. Under that, you have symptomatic people who do not seek care because the symptoms aren't serious enough. And under that, you have the asymptomatic. Folks. And really, almost everything we know about the disease comes from people at the top of the pyramid. The people who have died, the people who have been hospitalized, or the people who are relatively severely symptomatic.