How to get away with selling classified information
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Hi, I'm Patricia Carvellis, the host of Politics Now. And throughout the week on the podcast, I'm joined by the brightest political minds at the ABC to wade through the political spin and bring you the analysis you need to know. We go beyond the headlines, digging into the key political stories of the day and making sure we have a little bit of fun along the way.
I don't think it's an aberration. I don't think it's just rogue. I don't think it's just temporary. I think politics is being smashed and anyone who thinks... That it's just a passing thing is completely deluded. Delulu, you reckon?
Delulu. It's called Politics Now and you can find it on ABC Listen.
This podcast was produced on the lands of the Awabakal and Gadigal people. How closely do you watch big speeches by Donald Trump?
Mr Speaker, the President of the United States.
I must admit, I don't watch them that closely these days. If something important happens, I'm sure someone will let me know.
Well, thank you very much, everybody. It's really an honour.
But on the prediction market websites, Polymarket and Kalshi, there's a small community of people watching speeches like this year's State of the Union very closely indeed. See, both those websites offer what's called mention markets, where people can bet on what Donald Trump will say during his speech.
Speaker Johnson, Vice President Vance, First Lady of the United States.
As Trump began speaking, hundreds of people on Kalshi were placing bets on 56 different words that Trump might say. For example, as he began talking, people thought it was pretty likely that he would say the number 250 when talking about America's 250th anniversary celebration in July. And what do you know?
The 250th anniversary of our glorious American independence.
There you go.
The word trillion was also considered very likely to be mentioned and... The last administration got less than $1 trillion in new investment in the United States.
The thing is, betting on likely words isn't very profitable. If you put $100 on trillion as he was getting up to speak, you would have made a profit of $2.00. The big money is in more unlikely words, like would Trump say no, no, no, as in the word no repeated three times consecutively. Before the speech, Betters thought that there was a 24% chance of him saying that. So a $100 bet on it would get you a profit of $316. You'd be quadrupling your money.
Now we're winning too much. And I say, no, no, no, you're going to win again.
But the thing about speeches like this is Trump isn't just riffing for 108 minutes. There is a speech written for him. It is loaded into the teleprompter for him to read. The guy who does that is named Gabriel Perez. He has been working for Donald Trump ever since Trump's 2016 presidential campaign staff found his company VIP Promptors on a Google search for Teleprompters New York. He sets up, loads and operates Trump's teleprompters.
And, well... The president's long-time teleprompter operator is under investigation for insider trading. But, of course... The man is being investigated for allegedly placing bets on his speeches on the prediction market, Kalshi.
It was a pretty big mistake for this guy to allegedly make these trades on Kalshi. While Kalshi is the most popular prediction market platform in the US, it also claims to be the most reliable. When they clocked what this guy seemed to be doing, they alerted authorities immediately. Most of the betting on political stuff happens on Kalshi's more roguish, unregulated rival, Polymarket. And on Polymarket, stuff like this teleprompter scandal is happening pretty frequently.
A soldier was arrested and going to be on trial. He was on the team that went into Venezuela and captured Nicolas Maduro. And he allegedly bet on this at Polymarket.
As Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was on his way into Caracas to capture the Venezuelan president. He was also betting that Maduro would be out of power by the end of that month. And what do you know?
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–5:07
2
What are prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi and why do they matter?
5:07–8:07
3
How do mention markets let users bet on words in presidential speeches?
8:07–20:35
4
Who is Gabriel Perez and what happened with the teleprompter insider trading allegation?
20:35–26:56