Sequence of Returns Risk: Same ARF. Same Return. Totally Different Outcome

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Recorded06 Jul 2026

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Handlerec:19184406

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Two people can retire with the same ARF, the same average return, and the same withdrawal rate and still end up in completely different places. One leaves over €1m to his family. The other runs out of money before he turns 88. The only difference is the order in which the returns arrived. In this episode, Paddy breaks down sequence of returns risk in Ireland. The risk that gets far less attention than fund performance or pot size, but can matter more than either. What you'll learn: • Why sequence of returns doesn't matter at all while you're still accumulating • Why the first ten years of drawdown can account for roughly 77% of your final outcome • How Revenue's 4%/5%/6% imputed distribution rules interact with this risk in an Irish ARF • Four practical ways to protect your ARF: cash buffers, dynamic withdrawal, portfolio construction, and timing flexibility If you're within a decade of retirement, or already drawing an income from your ARF, this is worth half an hour of your time. Enjoy! 🎙️ Find all the full podcast episode and 📖 Blog here: www.informeddecisions.ie/post/sequence-of-returns-risk-ireland 📊 Want to check where you are? Try our free 5-minute Retirement Readiness Scorecard: www.informeddecisions.ie/pension-calculator 📅 Find out how we work: www.informeddecisions.ie DISCLAIMER This content is for general educational purposes only and does not constitute personalised financial advice. Everyone's situation is different. Always speak to a qualified, independent advisor before making pension or investment decisions. Tax rules and pension regulations change; figures quoted are accurate at time of recording.

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