“Grading my 2022 predictions for 2025” by Yitz

episode

LessWrong (30+ Karma) not yet transcribed

▲ 0

Transcript

This episode hasn't been transcribed yet Upvotes decide what gets transcribed next — 0 so far. Sign in to upvote

More from LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Claude Opus 4.5 Achieves 50%-Time Horizon Of Around 4 hrs 49 Mins” by Michaël Trazzi 3 min · 20 Dec 2025

All episodes from LessWrong (30+ Karma) →

Report any issue

Source

Recorded31 Dec 2025

Publisherfeeds.type3.audio ↗

Handlerec:14987126

Show notes

Three years ago, back in 2022, I wrote "A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability." Well, 2025 is almost over now, so let's see how well I did! I'll go over each individual prediction, and assign myself a subjective grade based on how close I got to the truth. Predictions for 2022 Post written by AI with minimal prompting reaches 30+ upvotes on LessWrong Score: probably D. I didn't see any high-karma posts from 2022 which were obviously AI-generated, but frankly, I didn't look very hard. I remember reading a few experimental AI-generated posts, but they were all downvoted pretty badly at the time. There were a lot of posts which included smaller excerpts from AI text, but that's not really what I was aiming for, so I'll say I failed this prediction. AI can regularly fool a randomly-selected (from American population), non-expert judge in a 10-minute Turing test. Score: D-. What in the world was I thinking with this one?? I suspect I severely over-updated on stories like Blake Lemoine claiming Google's AI was sentient, not realizing that a chatbot seeming "intelligent" is very different from an AI seeming "human" to [...] ---Outline:(00:34) Predictions for 2022(01:44) Predictions for 2023(06:58) Predictions for 2024(13:06) Predictions for 2025(17:49) Conclusion --- First published: December 31st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cYvxDjNrYyyjRdAzH/grading-my-2022-predictions-for-2025 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Ask this episode

“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.