“If AI is normal technology, history is not reassuring.” by Davidmanheim

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Recorded20 May 2026

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There's a truism that technology is good - even if it creates winners and losers, it improves the world. Toby Ord argues that the conclusions about the benefits of technology is sensitive to the end of humanity - but this jumps over the transitions by starting from the assumption[1] that “long-term progress in science, technology, and values have tended to make people's lives longer, freer, and more prosperous.” That is, looking back historically, the net impact misses the immense immediate harms of large scale technological changes that can last for generations. As I’ll explain, the largest technological revolutions in human history are arguably the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution. In both cases, the vast majority of those immediately affected were harmed, not helped. Of course, the longer term impact was positive; those benefits are not in question[2] - not that those alive during the transition should have cared. The two obvious examples The invention of agriculture led to increased food availability and around ten thousand years of greatly worsened health and lifespans[3]. The wealthiest and most powerful people benefited immensely from the population explosion, and from the wars that larger populations enabled and required; the population suffered from [...] ---Outline:(01:07) The two obvious examples(02:02) More Data?(05:24) Some Technologies Are Good, Actually(06:18) The Artificial Elephant in the Room(09:16) Conclusions and ways I might be wrong The original text contained 18 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 20th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4MCuvdsZFEBAaGCsb/if-ai-is-normal-technology-history-is-not-reassuring --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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