“Interview with Steven Byrnes on His Mainline Takeoff Scenario” by Liron

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Recorded10 Mar 2026

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After using the latest version of Claude Code and being surprised how capable it's become while still behaving friendly and corrigibly, I wanted to reflect on how this new observation should update my world model and my P(Doom). So I reached out to Dr. @Steven Byrnes, the highly polymathic AGI safety researcher who I last interviewed in August about Brain-like AGI, foom & doom, and solving technical alignment. We discussed: Steve's high P(Doom) “Brainlike AGI”: A qualitatively different next-generation AI Does nearly full unemployment likely come before or after the next ASI regime? Is “country of geniuses in a data center” a good prediction? Why we should expect ruthless sociopathic ASI Post-training & RLVR: the "thin layer" of consequentialism The air travel vs. space travel analogy Video & Audio The episode is available on Substack, YouTube, or by searching “Doom Debates“ in your podcast app. Transcript Introduction Liron 00:00:48 Welcome to Doom Debates. Today, we’ve got a fan favorite returning to the show, Dr. Steven Byrnes. You may remember him from six months ago. We had a really long, enriching conversation that I highly recommend. It's one of my favorite episodes of all time. He is an [...] ---Outline:(01:07) Video & Audio(01:20) Transcript(01:23) Introduction(05:42) Research Update: Whats New in The Last 6 Months(09:59) The Rise of AI Agents(17:16) Whats Your P(Doom)?™(20:50) Brain-Like AGI: The Next Generation of AI(37:00) Can LLMs Ever Match the Human Brain?(43:47) Will AI Kill Us Before It Takes Our Jobs?(49:29) Country of Geniuses in a Data Center(01:03:19) Why We Should Expect Ruthless Sociopathic ASI(01:12:58) Post-Training & RLVR -- A Thin Layer of Real Intelligence(01:30:35) Consequentialism and the Path to Superintelligence --- First published: March 10th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TwPFvNNayQvLAGkSx/interview-with-steven-byrnes-on-his-mainline-takeoff --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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