“Preparing for Warning Shots to Catalyze International Cooperation on AGI Risks” by Mark Kagach ☘️, EliasSchlie, Thomas Van Damme, JustinShovelain

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Recorded06 Jun 2026

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Summary This is a write-up on preparing for warning shots to catalyze international cooperation on AGI risks, and the corollary list of projects one could pursue. We argue we must first (1) understand types of warning shots, then (2) prepare to catch them. We must stay vigilant: both to (3) avoid getting 'frog boiled' by AI labs, and to (4) ensure that the warning shot is generalized to the overall danger of AGI. Lastly, we must (5) prepare good policy responses and ground for it to land, and (6) seize the first-mover advantage when the opportune moment comes. This yields the following list of promising projects one could pursue: Developing a theory of warning shots based on existing precedents (e.g. GPT-3.5 and Mythos releases), and past analogies: developing a typology and predicting likelihoods.Building infrastructure to catch a warning shot when it happens. (For example, Ajeya Cotra talks about recurring internal intelligence explosion evals of AI labs.) Creating strategies to avoid gradual numbing / sleepwalking through a warning shot (presumably there are lessons from e.g. communication on climate change).Building preliminary infrastructure (institutes, think-tanks, lobbying parties...) that lays out a good ground, for when a warning [...] ---Outline:(00:16) Summary(02:40) 1. Understand Warning Shots(04:26) 2. Prepare to Catch Warning Shots(05:09) 3. Avoid Getting "Frog Boiled"(06:07) 4. Ensure AGI Problem Generalization Occurs(07:01) 5. Prepare Good Policy Responses, and Good Ground for Them to Land(08:26) 6. Seize the First-Mover Advantage at the Opportune Moment The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 5th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uK7gguNeME5DnmdrL/preparing-for-warning-shots-to-catalyze-international --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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