“Smokey, This is not ’Nam Or: [Already] over the [red] line!” by Davidmanheim

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Recorded08 Feb 2026

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A lot of “red line” talk assumed that a capability shows up, everyone notices, and something changes. We keep seeing the opposite; capability arrives, and we get an argument about definitions after deployment, after it should be clear that we're well over the line. We’ve Already Crossed The Lines! Karl von Wendt listed the ‘red lines’ no one should ever cross. Whoops. A later, more public version of the same move shows up in the Global call for AI red lines with a request to “define what AI should never be allowed to do.” Well, we tried, but it seems pretty much over for plausible red lines - we're at the point where there's already the possibility of actual misuse or disaster, and we can hope that alignment efforts so far are good enough that we don't see them happen, or that we notice the (nonexistent) fire alarm going off. I shouldn't really need to prove the point to anyone paying attention, but below is an inventory of commonly cited red lines, and the ways deployed systems already conflict with them. Chemical weapons? “Novice uplift” is long past. Companies said SBRN would be a red line. They said it [...] ---Outline:(00:31) We've Already Crossed The Lines!(01:16) Chemical weapons? Novice uplift is long past.(03:06) No agentic online access got replaced by agentic online access is the product(05:07) Autonomous replication? Looking back at the line we crossed.(06:42) The repeating pattern(07:35) We might be fine! The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 8th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zxCYWfu6rNyxedqxu/smokey-this-is-not-nam-or-already-over-the-red-line --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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