“To be well-calibrated is to be punctual” by moridinamael

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Recorded26 Jan 2026

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To be well-calibrated is to be able to predict the world with appropriate confidence. We know that calibration can be improved through practice. Accurate calibration of our beliefs and expectations is a foundational element of epistemic rationality. Others have written in detail how to approach life with a Superforecaster mentality. I suggest a more modest practice: Always be punctual. You likely have many distinct opportunities to be on time almost every day. Each of these opportunities to be on time is an opportunity to make predictions: How long will it take me to... get showered and dressed? drive to the parking lot? walk from the parking lot to the meeting location? prepare the slides? complete errand X on the way to the meeting? get the kids ready to go out the door? If you have never really made it a priority to be punctual, you will likely learn many things very quickly. First of all, your basic estimates of timing are likely textbook Planning Fallacy examples, in the sense that they are all best-case scenario estimates with no allowance for traffic, computer trouble, bad directions, child tantrums, or slow elevators. Gradually, in your attempts to be predictably [...] --- First published: January 25th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Qj6v2tjZfDH9kfam/to-be-well-calibrated-is-to-be-punctual --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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