Why forecasts fail in the game of predicting the future - forecaster Paul Saffo

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Recorded20 May 2025

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Handlerec:13691817

Show notes

Arguably, the most important thing we need to do when thinking about the future, is to hold our strong opinions weakly. In the world of business strategy, the process of mapping what may lie ahead is usually tempted by a perfected, tried-and-true, method. So what happens when the forecast is wrong? On this episode of Looking Outside we are exploring the process and purpose of scenario planning, with world leading forecaster, professor and futurist, Paul Saffo. Having helped organizations, governments and future leaders build skills in forecasting for the future for decades, Paul knows better than most how predictions of the future can fail when certainty is the desired outcome. Equally he’s seen how people can become entranced with a specific method and obsessed with the accuracy of their predictions. He says instead, when thinking about the future, we should intentionally second guess assumptions, especially, those of so-called subject matter experts. Sometimes, it comes down simply to having a good compass and learning to read the stars.----------More:Looking Outside podcast www.looking-outside.comConnect with host, Jo Lepore on LinkedIn & X & jolepore.comLearn more about Paul Saffo, futurist with a pastFollow Paul on LinkedIn & X & Instagram Check out more of Paul's work with the Long Now Foundation, Singularity University, The Atlantic Council and the Millennium Project----------⭐ Follow & rate the show - it makes a difference!----------Looking Outside is a podcast exploring fresh perspectives of familiar topics. Hosted by its creator, futurist and strategist, Jo Lepore. New episodes every 2 weeks. Never the same topic.All views are that of the host and guests and don’t necessarily reflect those of their employers. Copyright 2025. Theme songs by Azteca X.

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