Why SpaceX Will Hit $10 Trillion — And Why Most Investors Will Miss It
episode
Making Billions: The Private Equity Podcast for Fund Managers, Alternative Asset Managers, and Venture Capital Investors
27 min
1 speaker
6 chapters
transcribed 1 month ago
Transcript
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Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Why do Wall Street analysts get SpaceX’s valuation wrong?
Wall Street analysts are wrong about SpaceX, and here's exactly why that will work to your advantage. Before we dive in, just a word from our sponsor. When doing deals, we all know that raising capital is the one thing that unlocks everything. That's why I've partnered with ReefPass investors that are actively funding deals right now. So if you're a deal syndicator or a founder thinking about launching an MA-focused buy and build platform, reach out to ReefPass Investors at reefpassinvestors.com. They are one of the best investors in the game that are helping you launch a new long-term holding company. So here's what I want you to do. Click the description in the notes and contact them for a discovery call and potentially get an invite to pitch your next M ⁇ A deal.
Наскета. The current IPO consensus puts SpaceX at $1.75 to $2 trillion. And to get there, analysts are comparing it to Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, just traditional aerospace and defense at roughly 14 times EVADEF. Okay, fine. They're doing their job, they're doing it well and doing it how they're trained. And there are others who are pulling in Rocket Lab, AST Space Mobile, Planet Labs, the New Space Economy Basket. SpaceX currently prices at one hundred and fifty six times EVITA, blowing every single one of those comps out of the water. So the analysts know their models are broken. They just don't know why. Well, I'm gonna tell you why. See, to properly value SpaceX, you don't look at Boeing, you go back four hundred years to look at one of the most valuable companies in all human history, otherwise known as the East India Trading Company.
It was estimated at around ten trillion dollars at today's valuation. And here's what most people get wrong about the East India Trading Company. They think it became most valuable because they were trading spices, pepper, silk, cotton moving between London and Calcutta. That's the textbook version. That is not why it was worth $10 trillion. The East India Trading Company hit a ten trillion dollar valuation because it stopped trading and started colonizing. It was exploring the new world. Can you see the parallel here? So here's how it actually happened. In 1757, the Battle of Plassey changed everything. The company defeated the Nawab of Bengal and gained control of one of the richest regions in the world.
Not to trade, but to tax and to govern. And so they were colonizing and building colonies. in the New World to expand not only trade but also humanity itself. It built its own standing army of two hundred sixty thousand soldiers, twice the size of the British Army at the time, not to protect ships, but to control the territory. Does that sound interesting? Does that sound familiar? Maybe an army of robots? This is really cool. It minted its own currency and ran the court system and had power to declare war. Can you believe that? It became a sovereign state on its own inside a corporate structure. And at its peak, it controlled half of all world trade. Not because it traded, but because it owned the infrastructure that made all of it possible.
Does it sound familiar? The spices were the excuse. Territorial monopoly was the actual business model. Now look at SpaceX. It starts a rocket company, but what it's actually building is the infrastructure layer for the next phase of human civilization. Orbital launch monopoly. They got Starlink at nine million subscribers with no viable competitor. Direct to sell orbital data centers and a credible Mars colonization backed by a US government contract. It's not selling rides to space, it's building trade routes. Does this sound familiar? See, the East India Trading Company was worth 10 trillion the moment the world realized it didn't just move goods, it controlled the means by which goods could move at all.
See, SpaceX goes public at 1.75 trillion and has not yet monetized a single interplanetary New World frontier. See, Wall Street is comparing it to Boeing. You should be asking what it looks like when the company that owns the infrastructure between planets starts to govern it.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Why do Wall Street analysts get SpaceX’s valuation wrong?
0:00–5:26
2
How does the East India Trading Company analogy explain SpaceX’s potential value?
5:26–8:53
3
What infrastructure monopoly is SpaceX building and why does it matter?
8:53–14:43
4
How do traditional aerospace comps mislead investors about SpaceX?
14:43–20:19
5
What is the flaw in Wall Street’s discounted cash‑flow model for SpaceX?
20:19–26:09
6
How can investors model SpaceX’s monopoly‑formation valuation?
26:09–27:30
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from Making Billions: The Private Equity Podcast for Fund Managers, Alternative Asset Managers, and Venture Capital Investors
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