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Chapter 1: How can a narrative impact the stock market?
How just a narrative with no new facts can wipe billions in value off the stock market. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. The stock market's big drop yesterday minus 821 points or 1.7 percent for the Dow is being put down in part to uncertainty over tariffs after many were deemed illegal. Today, a new 10 percent global rate took effect, with President Trump calling for 15 percent.
Something else spooked market players yesterday who are forwarding around a stock analysis firm's doomsday thought experiment about possible negative effects of artificial intelligence for the economy. Marketplace's Nova Safo explains.
The hypothetical from Citrini Research, written in a think piece widely circulated among Wall Street analysts and investors, painted a nightmare scenario in which AI displaced white-collar jobs throughout the economy in areas far beyond software, technology, and financial firms, which have recently faced a sell-off.
The paper talked of AI agents looking to save consumers money, creating a race to the bottom in fees, prices, and various middleman costs, including cutting out credit card transactions and using cryptocurrencies, which would hit MasterCard and Visa. One Wall Street analyst said he was forwarded the paper around 10 times.
And many of the names mentioned in the hypothetical experienced a steep sell-off in shares, including DoorDash down 6.5% and Capital One down nearly 9%.
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Chapter 2: What role do tariffs play in market fluctuations?
Wall Street has been concerned about the speed of artificial intelligence advancements and how they might filter among industries that have yet to prepare for those disruptions. I'm Novosafo for Marketplace.
Yet there's this analysts at Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs calculate that artificial intelligence contributions to U.S. economic growth last year was in the billions, the trillions. Goldman's calculation for how much AI boosted GDP last year, quote, basically zero. We're all supposed to start our next sentence with the two words, but eventually.
The online marketplace eBay is buying Depop, a secondhand clothing site popular among teens and 20-somethings, for $1.2 billion. Etsy has owned it for five years. It's an interesting bet. Here's Marketplace's Samantha Fields.
If you haven't heard of Depop, I'm going to go ahead and guess that you, like me, are over 35.
Something like 90% of their consumer base under age 34. eBay is the opposite. They're mostly 35+.
Steve Hockman at Technology Solutions from Nagaro says that's likely a big part of why eBay wanted to buy Depop.
Depop is a really cool, hip brand.
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Chapter 3: How is AI perceived as a threat to white-collar jobs?
It's kind of like acquiring your cool cousin.
There are risks here for eBay. Hockman says Depop, like other sites that let people buy and sell used clothes, has struggled to make money.
But... eBay has immense system sophistication, scalability, and they've got armies of experienced designers creating a great shopping experience.
all of which could translate to Depop. Even without profitability, Sucharita Kadali at Forrester says Depop brings something valuable to eBay, its database of Gen Z buyers and sellers.
That's a huge benefit just out of the gate because it would take them maybe more than a billion dollars, arguably, to get that many names of Gen Z consumers on their own.
And by buying the platform, she says they get the names and a bunch of data on what those consumers want. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.
If you have an offspring 18 and under, they can now get signed up for a tax-protected investment account that were part of the big spending and tax law from last summer. Parents should get to know this code, the 530A account. If the youngster was born in 2025 or this year, the Treasury will top up that account with $1,000. Young Amelia or Liam needs a Social Security number.
But there's worry many of the children who need these savings accounts may never get them. Marketplace's Carla Javier reports.
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Chapter 4: What are the potential economic effects of AI advancements?
The accounts have the potential to be the most significant wealth-building policy for children in U.S. history, says Qin Huang at Washington University in St. Louis.
This could be transformational, but only if the design works.
And Huang is worried that the design won't work.
The policy says every child. The design says opt-in. Those two things are in direct contradiction.
Parents have to opt-in to open the accounts for their kids, even though all American kids under 18 with Social Security numbers are eligible. And the only way for them to opt-in, at least right now, is by filing their income tax returns along with the brand new IRS Form 4547. Madeline Brown at the Urban Institute says the choice to link enrollment primarily to tax filing...
leaves out children who will need this program the most because a substantial share of our low-income households owe no federal income tax, right? And so a lot of them don't file at all.
Another problem? Right now, it seems awareness of the accounts can be low. Denise Ocaña at the United Way of Greater Los Angeles runs a tax prep site for people with low incomes, disabilities, and limited English skills.
For the most part, a lot of folks don't know.
Ocaña says the IRS has provided materials and training to explain the new accounts and the $1,000 for babies born between 2025 and 2028. A lot of her clients, once they know about the program, are choosing to enroll their eligible kids. She sees a potential upside to the opt-in design.
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