The job market won't start fresh in 2026
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What recent trends are impacting the job market in the U.S.?
dueling data on jobs, more on what's behind that GDP jump, and to be on theme for the holiday, toys. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.
In Washington, D.C., I'm Kimberly Adams in for Kyra's doll. It's Wednesday, the 24th of December. Good to have you along, everybody. We got some relatively good news about the job market today. The Labor Department reported initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 nationwide last week. That's now down to the historically low level we saw before the pandemic.
How do unemployment claims reflect the current job situation?
It's a very different story than what we saw in the delayed government jobs report, which showed that since September, the economy lost about 40,000 jobs, while unemployment spiked higher to 4.6%. Other than the pandemic, that's the worst unemployment rate we've seen since 2017. So one report says fewer people are filing for unemployment, while the other says there are more people unemployed. How does that work? Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman is here to help it make sense.
What factors contribute to the rising unemployment rate for specific demographics?
Let's start with the positive employment news. It's good to see that jobless claims are low. Ryan Young is chief economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. There came in about 10,000 people under estimates, which is 10,000 paychecks that are safe. Except that might not tell the whole story. Michelle Evermore at the National Academy of Social Insurance is an expert on the unemployment system.
How are businesses responding to hiring challenges in the current economy?
Initial claims, as I always say, only measure people who lose work and then apply for unemployment insurance. And right now, Evermore says the workers losing jobs are least likely to apply for unemployment insurance. So that's Black workers, people who are part-time for economic reasons, people who are marginally attached to the workforce. They may have exhausted their unemployment insurance. Right now, the unemployment rate is not high by historic standards. But as it gradually rises, it becomes a bigger problem for the economy and for particular worker groups, says Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
What role does AI investment play in the economy despite tariffs?
Right now, it's at 4.6 percent. Go back a couple of years, we're at 3.4 percent. The unemployment rate for whites has not risen a lot, 3.9 percent now. But for black workers, it's at 8.3 percent. That's a high unemployment. I mean, if that were the overall unemployment rate, we'd say we're in a bad recession. And there's not a lot of encouraging news heading into 2026, says Mike Frattantoni at the Mortgage Bankers Association, because job creation has basically stalled out. There really was no net employment growth from April through November. Businesses are just cautious about hiring. The hiring rate is really as low as it's been over much of the last couple of decades. And you see employees very cautious as well.
All this has knock-on effects for the rest of the economy, from consumer spending to housing. If people don't feel confident in their employment situation, it's unlikely they're going to move forward to buy a home. And surveys find Americans are ever more apprehensive that they're going to lose their jobs or see their pay cut in the coming year.
How are social media influencers adapting to economic challenges?
I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace. A short trading day this Christmas Eve on Wall Street, but it was open long enough to hit a new high. We'll have the details when we do the numbers.
I want to follow up on that surprisingly good and also delayed GDP report that came out yesterday, which showed the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter, the highest reading in two years. It was surprising to many economists because they expected ongoing uncertainty, particularly around President Trump's tariffs, would have some effect on the economy. And though the growth was driven partly by rising consumer spending, as we reported yesterday, that spending has been concentrated among higher income households. But growth was also boosted by continued spending and investment in an industry that has gotten a pass on some of those tariffs. Two familiar letters, A.I.
Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino has more.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What recent trends are impacting the job market in the U.S.?
0:02–0:45
2
How do unemployment claims reflect the current job situation?
0:45–1:17
3
What factors contribute to the rising unemployment rate for specific demographics?
1:17–1:41
4
How are businesses responding to hiring challenges in the current economy?
1:41–2:18
5
What role does AI investment play in the economy despite tariffs?
2:18–3:26
6
How are social media influencers adapting to economic challenges?
3:26–5:21
7
What is the history and significance of Legos in the toy industry?
5:21–6:33
8
How can Legos serve as a reliable gift option during the holidays?
6:33–26:57