What happens when you can bet on anything?
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What is the rise of prediction markets and how do they work?
Hi, I'm Rima Grace, and welcome to This is Uncomfortable. This month, you've got millions of people gambling on March Madness, placing wagers on which basketball team will take the national title. A lot of folks, they're betting on apps like FanDuel or DraftKings. But this year, we're also seeing more people placing their sports bets on something called prediction markets. These are places on the internet where, yeah, you can bet on sports, but also you can bet on anything. Elections, cultural events, natural disasters. On websites like Kalshi and Polymarket, you can find people wagering on everything from who will be the next supreme leader of Iran to which contestant will win the reality game show Survivor.
Prediction markets are soaring in popularity, but right now they're also facing some renewed criticism.
There are multiple markets covering the war in Ukraine and Iran, and there's also multiple bets on nuclear detonation. Imagine betting on what White House Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt will say in her next briefing. Or betting on how many cases of measles there will be this year.
This might actually be the easiest way to make money in 2026. Howshe is a predatory app.
Billions of dollars are traded on them every week. And now CNN and CNBC have struck deals to incorporate Kalshi prediction markets into coverage.
There's a lot to dig into when it comes to prediction markets. They operate in this kind of legal gray area. They're not subject to gambling regulations, which a lot of states aren't thrilled about. Just last week, Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi, arguing that it's an illegal gambling operation. But today I want to know, with the rise of these platforms and the rise of sports betting, what happens when you can place a wager on practically anything? What does that do to our brains, our bank accounts, and how we relate to one another? To get into it, I'm talking with two people who've thought a lot about this. I'm chatting with Hannah Horvath, who's a financial planner and money expert.
Hannah has a sub stack about the psychology of money and how our minds influence our financial decisions. Hey, Hannah. Hi, super happy to be here. And I'm also joined by Tim Fong, who's a clinical professor of psychiatry at UCLA and co-director of the UCLA Gambling Studies Program. Hey, Tim.
Hey, it's great to be here. And I'm actually very comfortable being here on the This is Uncomfortable podcast.
Okay, so I want to start off by talking about prediction markets. Hannah, what was your reaction when you first learned about them?
When I first heard about prediction markets, I really felt like they were just the natural next step in what had already kind of been happening with the broader, like, casinification of the economy. I find it to be not surprising, but also, you know, equally concerning about how quickly it's grown, how embedded it's become in, like, all these different areas of our culture and economy. And, you know, it doesn't seem to be slowing down at all.
How about you, Tim? What are your thoughts on prediction markets?
So I've been studying gambling behavior since 2005. And there's a couple of basic things we know. We know gambling has been part of humankind since the dawn of humankind. But in the last 30 years, the kind of games and opportunities we can spend our money on has changed dramatically. You fast forward to what prediction markets are. They were a direct byproduct of, oh, gambling is normal. Gambling is expected. And how can I create a business that...
How is gambling becoming normalized in everyday life?
skirts and avoids gambling regulation and that's prediction markets and i think that's super super interesting to me because it really is a symbol of what's happening in a culture very quickly yeah can you all give me a sense of like what is one of the wildest markets that y'all have seen will jesus return in 2027 that's the one that always comes to mind too
I checked it this morning, actually. There's a 5% chance.
Oh, wow. I think it was 3%. You know, we laugh about it because it seems so, so asinine.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the rise of prediction markets and how do they work?
0:01–3:15
2
How is gambling becoming normalized in everyday life?
3:15–9:05
3
What are the psychological impacts of gambling on individuals?
9:05–17:52
4
How do prediction markets affect our perception of risk?
17:52–22:45
5
What role does loneliness play in gambling behavior?
22:45–28:53